外媒：中国正在赢得控制21世纪最有价值商品的竞赛

中国已经取代美国成为世界上最大的高科技制造国，预计在未来10年内，中国将在包括人工智能(AI)、5G、量子信息科学(QIS)、半导体、生物技术和绿色能源在内的21世纪基础技术方面赶。哈佛大学肯尼迪学院(Harvard Kennedy School)的一份报告显示，在某些领域，中国已经领先于美国。预计美中科技战争将加剧，因为有预测称，美国将在21世纪的一系列基础技术领域被其最大的经济对手超越。外媒RT杂志就对此进行报道其其文章如下：

“The report, titled ‘The Great Technological Rivalry’, has concluded not only that China has made extraordinary technological leaps, making it a “full-spectrum peer competitor,” but that it looks well placed to dominate the future.

这份题为《伟大的技术竞争》(The Great Technological rival)的报告得出的结论是，中国不仅取得了非凡的技术飞跃，使其成为“全方位的同类竞争对手”，而且它似乎处于主导未来的有利地位。

In less than a quarter of a century, America’s preeminent technological leadership of the world has been reversed. China has displaced the US as the top high-tech manufacturer globally, producing 250 million computers, 25 million automobiles, and 1.5 billion smartphones in 2020.

在不到四分之一个世纪的时间里，美国在世界科技领域的卓越领导地位发生了逆转。2020年，中国已取代美国成为全球最大的高科技制造商，生产了2.5亿台电脑、2500万辆汽车和15亿台智能手机。

But besides becoming a manufacturing powerhouse, as Graham Allison (one of the Harvard Report’s authors) and Eric Schmidt (former CEO of Google) note in an op-ed for the Wall Street Journal, “In each of the foundational technologies of the 21st century – artificial intelligence, semiconductors, 5G wireless, quantum information science, biotechnology and green energy – China could soon be the global leader. In some areas, it is already No. 1.”

但除了成为制造业大国，正如格雷厄姆·艾莉森(哈佛报告的作者之一)和埃里克·施密特(谷歌的前首席执行官)在《华尔街日报》的一篇专栏文章中指出的那样，“在21世纪的每一项基础技术——人工智能、半导体、5G无线、量子信息科学、生物技术和绿色能源——中国可能很快成为全球领导者。在某些领域，它已经是第一。”

This is a remarkable turnaround, and one that most Western experts arrogantly did not consider possible.

这是一个了不起的转变，而大多数西方专家傲慢地认为这是不可能的。

The Harvard Report observes, for example, that in 1999, the National Academies of Science, Engineering, and Medicine declared that America’s “uniquely powerful system for creating new knowledge and putting it to work for everyone’s benefit” would remain the single largest determinant for the 21st century.

例如，《哈佛报告》指出，1999年，美国国家科学、工程和医学科学院宣布，美国“创造新知识并将其用于造福所有人的独特而强大的体系”仍将是21世纪的最大决定因素。

The Harvard Report also recalls how Time Magazine, in its special issue ‘Beyond 2000’, asserted that “China cannot grow into an industrial giant in the 21st century. Its population is too large and its gross domestic product too small.” China scholar William Kirby in the Harvard Business Review, reflecting the prevailing wisdom of the experts at the time, asserted that “China [was] largely a land of rule-bound rote learners” that could only imitate, not innovate. Only free thinkers, apparently – not copycats under authoritarian rule – could innovate in the era of information technology.

《哈佛报告》还回顾了《时代》杂志在其特刊《超越2000年》中断言“中国不可能在21世纪成长为工业巨人。”它的人口太多，而国内生产总值(gdp)太少。”《哈佛商业评论》(Harvard Business Review)上的中国问题学者威廉·柯比(William Kirby)反映了当时专家们的普遍看法，他断言，“中国(在很大程度上)是一个受规则束缚的死记硬背的学习者之地”，他们只能模仿，而不能创新。显然，只有自由的思考者——而不是专制统治下的模仿者。

Well, so much for the experts. Today, as the Harvard Report acknowledges, authoritarian China now clearly tops the US in practical AI applications, including facial recognition, voice recognition, and fintech. It also notes that last year China produced 50% of the world’s computers and mobile phones; the US made only 6%. China now produces 70 solar panels for each one built in the US, sells four times the number of electric vehicles, and has nine times as many 5G base stations, with network speeds five times as fast as American equivalents.

好吧，专家们就说到这里。如今，正如《哈佛报告》所承认的那样，威权的中国在人工智能的实际应用(包括面部识别、语音识别和金融科技)方面明显超过了美国。报告还指出，去年中国生产了全球50%的电脑和手机;美国仅占6%。中国现在的太阳能电池板产量是美国的70比1，电动汽车销量是美国的4倍，5G基站数量是美国的9倍，网速是美国的5倍。

One should not exaggerate China’s position. The US still has a dominant position in the semiconductor industry, which it has held for almost half a century. However, the direction of travel is unmistakable, with China catching up in two important arenas: semiconductor fabrication and chip design. China has already surpassed America in the production of semiconductors. Its share of global production has risen to 15% from less than 1% in 1990. At the same time, the US share has fallen from 37% to 12%.

我们不应夸大中国的立场。美国在半导体行业仍占据主导地位，这一地位已维持了近半个世纪。然而，发展方向是明确的，中国正在两个重要领域迎头赶上:半导体制造和芯片设计。中国在半导体生产方面已经超过了美国。它在全球生产中的份额从1990年的不到1%上升到15%。与此同时，美国的份额从37%降至12%。

One indicator of the underlying and emerging power of China’s future scientific knowledge and innovation pipeline is its intellectual capital. With a population of 1.4 billion, China has an unparalleled pool of talent and data. Its universities are graduating computer scientists in multiples of their American counterparts.

中国未来科学知识和创新管道的潜在力量和新兴力量的一个指标是其智力资本。拥有14亿人口的中国拥有无与伦比的人才和数据储备。中国大学毕业的计算机科学家数量是美国大学的数倍。

China graduates four times as many bachelor students with STEM degrees and will graduate twice as many STEM PhDs by 2025. By contrast, the number of domestic-born AI PhDs in the US has not increased since 1990. In international science and technology rankings for K-12 students, China consistently outscores the United States in math and science – in 2018, China’s PISA scores, which assess math, science, and reading, were ranked number one, while the US was 25th.

到2025年，中国获得STEM学位的本科毕业生人数将是目前的四倍，获得STEM博士学位的人数将是目前的两倍。相比之下，美国国内出生的人工智能博士数量自1990年以来就没有增加过。在K-12学生的国际科学和技术排名中，中国在数学和科学方面的得分一直超过美国——2018年，中国的PISA分数(评估数学、科学和阅读)排名第一，而美国排名第25。

Three decades ago, only one in 20 Chinese students studying abroad returned home. Now, four of every five do. And although America has historically benefited from its ability to attract talent, the US now risks losing the competition for talent on the scientific frontiers for the first time.

30年前，只有二十分之一的中国留学生回国。而现在，每5个人中就有4个人这样做。尽管美国历来受益于其吸引人才的能力，但美国现在面临着首次失去科学前沿人才竞争的风险。

The problem for the US is that the underlying trends point to it being surpassed in almost every sphere, even those in which it still retains an advantage today.

美国面临的问题是，基本趋势表明，它几乎在所有领域都被超越，即便是在那些它目前仍保持优势的领域。

For example, the US remains the uncontested leader in biotechnologies, with a significant lead in innovation and seven of the ten most valuable life science companies. However, China now lists biotech as one of the critical areas for national development, with significant investment indicating it is fiercely competing across the full biotech R&D spectrum. Chinese researchers have narrowed America’s lead in the CRISPR gene-editing technique and surpassed it in CAR T-cell therapy.

例如，美国仍然是生物技术领域无可争议的领导者，在创新方面遥遥领先，在十大最有价值的生命科学公司中有7家。然而，中国现在将生物技术列为国家发展的关键领域之一，大量投资表明，中国正在整个生物技术研发领域展开激烈竞争。中国研究人员已经缩小了美国在CRISPR基因编辑技术方面的领先优势，并在CAR - t细胞治疗方面超越了美国。

America has been the primary inventor of new green energy technologies over the past two decades. But today, China is the world’s leading manufacturer, user, and exporter of those technologies, cementing a monopoly over the future green energy supply chain.

在过去20年里，美国一直是新型绿色能源技术的主要发明者。但今天，中国是这些技术的世界领先制造商、用户和出口国，巩固了对未来绿色能源供应链的垄断地位。

More critically, China has a near-monopoly over several of the critical inputs necessary for solar panels, batteries, and other green tech, including chemical lithium (50% of global production), polysilicon (60%), rare earth metals (70%), natural graphite (70%), cobalt refining (80%), and rare earth refining (90%). And where China lacks resources domestically, it has secured them overseas.

更关键的是，中国几乎垄断了太阳能电池板、电池和其他绿色技术所需的几种关键投入，包括化学锂(占全球产量的50%)、多晶硅(60%)、稀土金属(70%)、天然石墨(70%)、钴精炼(80%)和稀土精炼(90%)。在国内缺乏资源的地方，中国在海外获得了资源。

The Harvard Report is thus a wake-up call to the US and the West. It highlights that China is now a vast economic power poised to dominate the scientific and technological future. It is no wonder that Allison and Schmidt conclude their article with a stern warning: “Unless the US can organize a national response analogous to the mobilization that created the technologies that won World War II, China could soon dominate the technologies of the future and the opportunities they will create.”

因此，《哈佛报告》给美国和西方敲响了警钟。它凸显出中国现在是一个巨大的经济大国，有望主宰未来的科技。难怪埃里森和施密特在文章的结尾发出了严厉的警告:“除非美国能组织一场全国性的应对行动，类似于创造了赢得二战胜利的技术的动员，否则中国可能很快就会主导未来的技术和它们将创造的机会。”

This time, the experts might have a point. It seems the future has already happened.

这一次，专家们可能是有道理的。未来似乎已经发生了。”

文章底下的网友也对其发表了自己的观点，我们来看看他们是怎么看待这个研究报告的吧。

Of the things listed - only in some semiconductor manufacturing tools and in biotechnology is the US ahead. The rest China is pretty much ahead now and rapidly closing in biotech. Semiconductors will take the longest - but the report is right about 2030. Many predict between 2028 and 2030 China will be able to break any punitive measures put on the semiconductor industry by the US.

在列出的项目中，美国只在一些半导体制造工具和生物技术领域领先。在其他领域，中国现在遥遥领先，在生物技术方面也在迅速接近。半导体将需要最长的时间——但报告对2030年的预测是正确的。许多人预测，在2028年至2030年期间，中国将能够打破美国对半导体行业的任何惩罚性措施。

I will write the paper after it has become a reality. Otherwise, it is no use to talk about it. Prediction is always error-prone. Just because it is published from Harvard, it doesn't mean it is good. Most likely, Harvard needs attention to attrat money from private donation and government assistance. It is well known that squeaking wheel gets the grease.

我将在它成为现实后写论文。否则，谈论它是没有用的。预测总是容易出错。仅仅因为它是哈佛出版的，并不意味着它是好的。最有可能的是，哈佛需要吸引私人捐赠和政府援助的资金。众所周知，会哭的孩子有奶吃。

Many military generals and defense industry CEOs already made speech recently to highten the China risks in order to attract funding for their organization. U.S. Senate just approved an alarming US $770 billion dollars defense budget which is more than the total sum of defense budgets from the next eight biggest countries combined.

许多军事将领和国防工业首席执行官最近已经发表讲话，强调中国的风险，以吸引资金。美国参议院刚刚通过了一项令人震惊的7700亿美元的国防预算，比排在其后的8个大国的国防预算总和还要多。

You reap what you sow. "99% perspiration and 1% inspiration" is all you need to succeed. History is filled with many such examples. If the US is not going to do anything; AI, 5G, Quantum computing and etc will become common place in all cities in China. The rest of the world will have no choice but to buy from China, the US will be living in the "flintstone era". Remember the AIIB story? The very country that betrayed Uncle Sam is no other than the "Best Bud", The UK. History may repeat itself,....

一分耕耘一分收获。“99%的汗水加1%的灵感”是你成功所需要的。历史上有很多这样的例子。如果美国不打算采取任何行动;人工智能、5G、量子计算等将在中国所有城市普及。世界其他国家将别无选择，只能从中国购买，而美国将生活在“燧石石时代”。还记得亚投行的故事吗?背叛山姆大叔的国家正是“最好的蓓蕾”——英国。历史可能会重演……

Number of patents in AI is not an indication of Chinese being ahead of the US. The quality of US patents are far superios to what the Chinese have published. In Semiconductors SMIC the Chinese FAB despits millions being poured by CCP is still two generations behind Intel and TSMC. There is now the Chinese can get the secret sauce of being ahead of the US in Sem Manufacturing.

人工智能领域的专利数量并不表明中国领先于美国。美国专利的质量远远优于中国公布的专利。在半导体方面，中芯国际尽管被CCP投入了数百万美元，但仍比英特尔和台积电落后两代。现在中国人可以获得在Sem制造业领先美国的秘诀了。

There are no real applications for 5G and hence the number of Mobile 5G in the US is limited. What the study needs to address how much of the Chinese 5G has added to theor GDP. Zero. There is nothing new that the Chinese have accomplished in Quantum Computing either.

5G还没有真正的应用，因此美国移动5G的数量是有限的。这项研究需要解决的是中国5G对GDP的贡献有多大。零。中国人在量子计算方面也没有什么新成就。

Where China is ahead of the US is in EV and Green Energy Tech. Chinese have no choice but to spend money on EV since ther totally depedent on other countries for Oil. Again how much of this is adding to their GDP? Not significant. US has remains the largest producer il and Gas and will remain so for the forseeable future.

中国领先美国的是电动汽车和绿色能源技术。中国人别无选择，只能在电动汽车上花钱，因为他们完全依赖其他国家的石油。再问一次，这些对GDP的贡献是多少?不显著。美国仍然是最大的石油和天然气生产国，而且在可预见的未来仍将如此。