中国能在不依赖外国技术的情况下发展完全自主的芯片制造系统吗？

当前中美之间的芯片战争愈演愈烈，即使耶伦访华宣扬不再脱钩，但是白宫似乎并不放弃对华芯片制裁，这次美国芯片巨头终于撑不住了，要去华盛顿游说，称中国市场不可放弃，那他们的游说会成功吗？中国半导体会突破限制吗？美国网友问：中国能在不依赖任何外国技术的情况下发展完全自主的芯片制造系统吗？我们看看各国网友的回复。

问题

美国网友唐纳德•坎托纳的回答

China has repeatedly proven that if you try to exclude them, they will simply make their own version, which will be better than our initial version.

中国一次又一次地证明，如果你试图排除他们，他们会简单地做出自己的版本，而且会比我们最初的版本更好。

Qian Xuesen is my favorite example, but it is just one of many. Do you know that the father of the US space program and the father of the Chinese space program are the same person? This is true. Qian Xuesen came to the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in the United States to study and helped create the project that later became the US space program. He is indeed a genius in mathematics and science. But in the Red Scare period in American history, he was persecuted by McCarthyism. In 1955, after five years of house arrest, he made many amazing contributions to the scientific community (including his work in the Manhattan Project). He was allowed to return to China in exchange for some American prisoners of war in the Korean War.

钱学森是我最喜欢的例子，但它只是众多例子中的一个。你知道美国太空计划之父和中国太空计划之父是同一个人吗?这是真的。钱学森来到美国麻省理工学院学习，并帮助开创了后来成为美国太空计划的项目。他确实是数学和科学方面的天才。但在美国历史上的红色恐慌时期，他深受麦卡锡主义的迫害。1955年，在被软禁5年之后，他对科学界做出了许多惊人的贡献(包括在曼哈顿计划中的工作)，他被允许返回中国，以换取朝鲜战争中的一些美国战俘。

After returning to China, he devoted the rest of his life to China's space and nuclear weapons projects, making them stronger. He passed away in 2009 and now there is a museum in Shanghai to commemorate him. I hope to see it one day. I hope he is still alive, so that I can apologize to him for the despicable behavior of the United States towards him.

回到中国后，他将自己的余生奉献给了中国的太空和核武器项目，并使它们变得强大。他于2009年去世，现在上海有一座纪念他的博物馆。我希望有一天能看到它。我希望他还活着，这样我就可以为美国对待他的卑鄙行为向他道歉。

Later, when the International Space Station took off, the United States refused to allow China to participate, despite British scientists speaking for their Chinese counterparts. The United States stipulates that cooperation between the NASA (NASA) and the China National Space Administration (CNSA) is illegal.

后来，当国际空间站起飞时，美国拒绝让中国参与，尽管英国科学家为中国同行说话。美国规定美国国家航空航天局(NASA)与中国航天局(CNSA)合作是非法的。

So how does China do it? After the Galileo project, they did not request participation. They built their own space station and did it better. So far, NASA has expressed its hope that China will provide their findings to the international scientific community. Oh, really? Hypocrisy!

那么中国是怎么做的呢?在伽利略项目之后，他们并没有要求参与进来。他们建造了自己的空间站，而且做得更好。以至于现在美国宇航局表示，他们希望中国将他们的发现提供给国际科学界。哦,真的吗?虚伪!

Yes, they did better. They successfully landed on Mars for the first time. The United States went to Mars, but China had much less preparation time and succeeded in its first attempt. There are rumors now that China is going to build a base on the moon! So now, we are lagging behind China! It's all because we've been foolish twice! Firstly, we will send our best scientists back to China, and secondly, we will refuse to allow them to participate in the International Space Station.

是的，他们做得更好。他们第一次成功地登上了火星。美国去了火星，但中国准备时间少得多，第一次尝试就成功了。现在有传言说中国要在月球上建基地!所以现在，我们落后于中国了!都是因为我们两次犯傻!首先是把我们最好的科学家送回中国，其次是我们拒绝让他们参加国际空间站。

But you would say, this question is about chips and nanotechnology! Exactly. Give China a few years. Up to ten years. At that time, China will lead the nanochip market. Wait and see. The Chinese people have astonishing resilience. I think this must be their genes. They have withstood the test, achieved prosperity, and will continue to do so.

但你会说，这个问题是关于芯片和纳米技术的!完全正确。给中国几年时间。最多十年。届时，中国将引领纳米芯片市场。等着瞧。中国人民具有惊人的韧性。我想这一定是他们的基因。他们经受住了考验，取得了繁荣，并将继续这样做。

Time will prove whether my prophecy comes true. But please remember, my prediction is more reliable than Gordon Zhang's. I'm not arrogant, I just told the truth!

时间会证明我的预言是否成真。但请记住，我的预测比戈登•张的更可靠。我不是傲慢，我只是说了实话!

中国网友吴辉健的回答

Chinese technology companies such as Huawei, BYD and CATL are very focused on developing their own patented technologies and have become global technology leaders.

华为、比亚迪和宁德时代等中国科技公司非常专注于开发自己的专利技术，并成为全球技术领导者。

When they have a strong patent portfolio, they will form their own technical standards committee to make their technology an industry standard. Huawei is very effective in 5G and now 6G, which is why the US government has taken such a strong opposition stance towards transferring technology to the company. When the leadership position of the United States in the field of chip technology is threatened, the US government always takes strong action; This situation occurred in Japan in the 1980s and 1990s, and now it is also happening in China.

当他们拥有强大的专利组合时，他们将组建自己的技术标准委员会，使他们的技术成为行业标准。华为在5G和现在的6G方面非常有效，这就是为什么美国政府对向该公司转让技术采取如此强烈的反对立场。当美国在芯片技术领域的领导地位受到威胁时，美国政府总是采取强有力的行动;日本在80年代和90年代就发生过这种情况，现在中国也在发生。

The difference is that Japan has no defense capability against the United States because it is a defense ally of the United States. Therefore, when the United States asks Japan to jump, the Japanese government can only ask, "How high is the jump

不同的是，日本对美国毫无防御能力，因为它是美国的防务盟友，所以当美国让日本跳下去时，日本政府只能问“跳多高?”

The situation in China is not like this. China has clearly expressed its opposition to the US crackdown and refuses to make any compromises with the US government.

中国的情况并非如此，中国已经非常明确地表示反对美国的打压，并拒绝与美国政府进行任何妥协。

A significant advantage of China compared to the United States is that the demand for Chinese chips in the domestic market is very strong, far greater than in the US market. Most Manufacturing in the United States, including chips, is done in China. For example, except for Tesla, all major electric vehicle manufacturers are from China and are now actively entering the European market. Electric vehicles have a large number of chips and will be the main consumers of chips in China:

中国相对于美国的一个显著优势是，中国国内市场对中国芯片的需求非常强劲，远远大于美国市场。包括芯片在内的大多数美国制造业都是在中国完成的。举个例子:除了特斯拉，所有主要的电动汽车制造商都是中国的，他们现在开始积极进入欧洲市场。电动汽车拥有大量芯片，将是中国芯片的主要消费者:

The trade surplus is a major indicator of the United States' dependence on China in manufactured goods:

贸易顺差是衡量美国在制成品方面对中国依赖程度的一个主要指标:

Due to the continued weakness of domestic and international demand, the decline in exports was greater than that of imports. China's trade surplus decreased from $97.41 billion in the same period last year to $70.62 billion in June 2023, lower than the market expectation of $74.48 billion. Exports decreased by 12.4% year-on-year, marking the second consecutive month of decline and the largest decline since February 2020, which was lower than market expectations of 9.5%; And imports decreased by 6.9%. At the same time, the politically sensitive trade surplus with the United States slightly expanded from $28.16 billion in May to $28.72 billion in June. In the first six months of 2023, China's trade surplus with the United States reached $151.44 billion.

由于国内外需求持续疲软，出口降幅大于进口，中国贸易顺差从去年同期的974.1亿美元降至2023年6月的706.2亿美元，低于744.8亿美元的市场预期。出口同比下滑12.4%，为连续第二个月下滑，也是自2020年2月以来的最大跌幅，逊于9.5%的市场预期;而进口则减少了6.9%。与此同时，具有政治敏感性的对美贸易顺差从5月份的281.6亿美元小幅扩大至6月份的287.2亿美元。2023年前6个月，中国对美国贸易顺差达到1514.4亿美元。

Despite various anti China rhetoric within the United States, the trade surplus with China is still expanding. What does this mean? Even if the United States wants to decouple from China, it cannot do so. Numbers cannot lie.

尽管美国国内有各种反华言论，但对华贸易顺差仍在扩大。这是什么意思?即使美国想与中国脱钩，它也无法做到。数字不会说谎。

In terms of chip technology and manufacturing, the technology leader is Taiwan's TSMC, which is the only supplier of all Apple chips. Apple's A-series chips (used for iPhones and iPads) and M-series chips (used for computers) are far ahead of competitors.

在芯片技术和制造方面，技术领先者是台湾地区的台积电(TSMC)，它是苹果所有芯片的唯一供应商。苹果的A系列芯片(用于iPhone和iPad)和M系列芯片(用于电脑)远远领先于竞争对手。

What's the point of the United States Department of Commerce being forced to threaten TSMC to hand over their customer data and force TSMC to build a chip factory in Arizona? After all, most consumer products may be shipped to China for assembly into products? The answer is that this is not related to the economy or international trade; It is related to technology transfer and politics. TSMC is a leader in chip technology, while Intel and Apple are technology companies in the United States. The United States hopes to control the leading generation of chip design and prevent it from falling into the hands of China.

美国商务部现在被迫威胁台积电交出他们的客户数据，还强迫台积电在亚利桑那州建芯片厂，这有什么意义呢?毕竟，大部分消费产品都可能运往中国组装成产品?答案是，这与经济和国际贸易无关;它事关技术转让和政治。台积电是芯片技术的领导者，英特尔和苹果是美国的科技公司。美国希望控制领先一代的芯片设计，不让它落入中国之手。

There is a problem with this approach: Chinese chip companies have been actively recruiting retired senior engineers from TSMC to work in Chinese companies at 2-3 times their salary, effectively transferring their knowledge to Chinese companies. So, if you were a production engineer in your 50s at TSMC and had the opportunity to transfer to Arizona with your current salary or receive a salary of $500000 to $1 million to work in Hangzhou, Wuxi, or Shenzhen, which one would you choose? What should the United States do? Will it start to assassinate TSMC engineers working in China just like the Israelis killed Iranian nuclear engineers?

这种做法有一个问题:中国芯片公司一直在积极招聘台积电即将退休的高级工程师，以其工资的2-3倍的价格来到中国公司工作，有效地将他们的知识转移到中国公司。所以，如果你是台积电的一名50多岁的生产工程师，你有机会以目前的薪水调到亚利桑那州，或者得到50万到100万美元的薪酬到杭州、无锡或深圳工作，你会选择哪一个?美国要怎么做?它会像以色列人杀害伊朗核工程师那样开始暗杀在中国工作的台积电工程师吗?

This Chinese strategy is not limited to Chinese chip manufacturers; This situation is also happening to Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers, who are recruiting senior design engineers from Toyota and Honda.

这种中国战略并不局限于中国的芯片制造商;这种情况也发生在中国电动汽车制造商身上，它们正在从丰田和本田挖来高级设计工程师。

The problem is that China's organizational structure is unprecedented in Japan. All substantive things are under the control of China, which has released a five-year plan, announced which industry it wants to promote, and then pushed these policies towards the level of enterprises and local governments with quantitative goals. Due to repeated sanctions from the Trump and Biden governments, he now declares that China must achieve independence in key chip manufacturing technologies.

问题是，中国的组织性是日本从未有过的。所有实质性的东西都在中国的控制之下，它发布五年计划，宣布它要促进哪个行业，然后将这些政策以量化目标推向企业和地方政府层面。由于特朗普和拜登政府的一再制裁，他现在宣布中国必须在关键的芯片制造技术上实现独立。

Now, the domestic chip technology initiative is a national plan. Senior engineers from Chinese chip companies are now carefully inspecting every component used in the manufacturing process to trace their patent sources. If the patent comes from a Western company in a Western country, it will be included in the list of replacing Chinese components with Chinese technology.

现在，国产芯片技术倡议是一项国家计划。中国芯片公司的高级工程师现在正在仔细检查制造过程中使用的每一个组件，以追查它们的专利来源。如果专利来自西方国家的西方公司，那么它就会被列入用中国技术替换中国部件的名单。

From this perspective, it is easy to understand why China refuses to negotiate with the United States on key technologies. China has a market and consumers, and it is striving to develop its own technology, which relies on foreign countries. With the establishment and testing of alternative technologies in China, they will replace Western technologies. Chinese companies will occupy a dominant position in the two important new key areas of electric vehicles and renewable energy.

从这个角度看，很容易理解为什么中国拒绝与美国就关键技术进行谈判。中国有市场和消费者，而且它正在努力开发自己的技术，而这些技术是依赖外国的。随着中国替代技术的建立和测试，它们将取代西方技术。中国企业将在电动汽车和可再生能源这两个重要的新关键领域占据主导地位。

If you look at the adoption rate of electric vehicles today, China is the leader because of the government's incentives for electric vehicles. After testing the car models in the domestic market in China, Chinese manufacturers are now exporting cars to Europe because European consumers have similar car tastes to Chinese consumers.

如果你看看今天电动汽车的采用率，中国是领导者，因为政府对电动汽车的激励措施。在中国国内市场测试了车型后，中国制造商现在开始向欧洲出口汽车，因为欧洲消费者的汽车品味与中国消费者相差不大。

American consumers will be the last group to transition to electric vehicles. Because of this, as China strives to become a leader in chip technology, electric vehicles, and renewable energy, the special interests within the United States are China's best friend.

美国消费者将是最后一个向电动汽车过渡的群体。正因为如此，在中国努力成为芯片技术、电动汽车和可再生能源领域的领导者之际，美国国内的特殊利益是中国最好的朋友。

海外网友Nathaniel的回答

This problem can actually be understood as two problems.

这个问题实际上可以理解为两个问题。

1. China can completely independently create new technologies;

1. 中国可以完全独立地创造新技术；

2. China imports some technology and then develops some of its own;

2. 中国进口一些技术，然后自己开发一些技术；

3. China fully develops chip technology, including the development of replicating (non obtainable) foreign technologies.

3.中国完全开发芯片技术，其中包括复制(无法获得的)外国技术的开发。

What I want the questioner to ask is the third point.

我想提问者问的是第三点。

In fact, currently, there are some "basic technologies" that China cannot bypass in fields such as computers. But there are many such technologies that are not publicly available, so China needs to develop them on its own.

事实上，就目前而言，在计算机等领域，有一些“基本技术”显然是中国无法绕过的。但是有很多这样的技术是不公开的，所以中国需要自己开发。

Returning to the chip, let's take a look at this issue. We need to pay attention to these two issues.

回到芯片上，让我们来看看这个问题。我们需要注意这两个问题。

Can China independently produce chips?

1. 中国能独立生产芯片吗?

Can China independently produce the world's best chips?

2. 中国能独立生产世界上最好的芯片吗?

These are two questions, and if the questioner is currently discussing the first question, the answer is yes. China has a history of producing electronic chips for decades.

这是两个问题，如果提问者现在正在谈论第一个问题，那么答案是肯定的。中国生产电子芯片已有几十年的历史。

The current problem in China is that its own chip production technology is about 10-20 years behind the world's most advanced technology. But a large number of chips do not require state-of-the-art technology. Currently, only digital products such as mobile phones require the most advanced chip manufacturing technology.

中国目前的问题是，中国自己的芯片生产技术比世界最先进的技术落后大约10-20年。但是大量的芯片并不需要最先进的技术。目前，只有手机等数码产品需要最先进的芯片制造技术。

By 2021, China's independently produced chips will account for about 10% of the total global chip production. In addition to digital products such as smartphones, these chips are widely used in military, industrial, and general civilian equipment. For example, on desktop chips, the single thread fixed-point test results of the best desktop quad core chips of China's Dragon Core and Feiteng are about one-third of those of Intel I5 4460, with a gap of only ten years.

到2021年，中国自主生产的芯片将占到全球芯片总产量的10%左右，除了手机等数码产品外，这些芯片广泛应用于军事、工业和一般民用设备。例如，在桌面芯片上，中国龙酷睿和飞腾目前最好的桌面四核芯片的单线程定点测试成绩约为英特尔I5 4460的三分之一，差距仅为十年。

China's chip production technology is getting closer to the latest chip technology in the world. The United States has been imposing sanctions on China, which has forced China's chip production industry to develop independently.

中国的芯片生产技术，越来越接近世界上最新的芯片技术。美国一直在制裁中国，这倒逼中国的芯片生产行业正在自主开发。

英国网友安妮尔的回答

This depends on your standards:

这取决于你的标准:

If you mean there is no foreign technology, then the answer is no.

•如果你的意思是没有任何外国技术，那么答案是否定的。

If you mean there is no license for any foreign technology, then it may, but it is unlikely.

•如果你的意思是没有任何外国技术的许可，那么可能会，但不太可能。

A large number of technologies belong to the public domain, or patents have expired. Basically, all current technologies are built on this foundation, many of which are foreign to China. This is the way technology advances, but anyone can use this technology because it is no longer protected.

有大量的技术属于公共领域，或者专利已经过期。基本上，目前所有的技术都是建立在这个基础上的，其中很多对中国来说是外国的。这就是技术进步的方式，但任何人都可以使用这项技术，因为它不再受到保护。

In addition, many Chinese companies have lifetime licenses for key technologies that cannot be revoked. China will continue to use this technology, but it cannot be revoked.

除此之外，许多中国公司拥有关键技术的终身许可证，不能撤销。中国将继续使用这项技术，但它不能被撤销。

In addition, there is a significant difference between avoiding all American and all foreign technologies. There are many European companies that are 'best' in their specific fields. I don't think China is trying to compete with them at this stage, but rather cooperate with them.

此外，避免所有美国技术和所有外国技术是有很大区别的。有许多欧洲公司在他们的特定领域是“最好的”。我不认为中国在这个阶段试图与他们竞争，而是与他们合作。

Therefore, it is highly likely to achieve partial success:

因此，它很可能会取得部分成功:

Some chips will be produced without any foreign technology, or may simply lack American technology.

•一些芯片将在没有任何外国技术的情况下生产，或者可能只是没有美国技术。

Many chips will be manufactured with limited foreign/American technology.

•许多芯片将用有限的外国/美国技术制造。

In terms of key semiconductor equipment technologies such as Extreme ultraviolet lithography, dry resistance, advanced Extreme ultraviolet lithography, electron beam metering, electron beam defect detection, computational lithography, Extreme ultraviolet lithography film, curve mask, reflective lithography technology, atomic layer etching, selective Atomic layer deposition, China lacks substantive technology.

在极紫外光刻、干阻、先进极紫外光刻、电子束计量、电子束缺陷检测、计算光刻、极紫外光刻膜、曲线掩模、反光刻技术、原子层刻蚀、选择性原子层沉积等半导体关键设备技术方面，中国缺乏实质性的技术。

Due to these weaknesses, a completely independent chip manufacturing ecosystem can be created, but it will be far behind foreign technology and will take decades to fully catch up.

由于这些弱点，可以创建一个完全独立的芯片制造生态系统，但它将远远落后于外国技术，需要几十年的时间才能完全赶上。

For China, the most ideal solution is to research and develop more undeveloped and cheaper technologies, such as DSA, nanoimprint lithography, SAOP imaging, hybrid bonding, and low energy materials, in order to compete with foreign technologies. However, this will be a huge challenge, even if many of these technologies are developed, they will still struggle in several technological fields.

对中国来说，最理想的解决方案是研究和开发更多尚未开发和更便宜的技术，如DSA、纳米压印光刻、SAOP图像化、混合键合和低能耗材料，以便与外国技术竞争。然而，这将是一个巨大的挑战，即使许多这些技术被开发出来，它们仍然会在几个技术领域中挣扎。

For example, in order to manufacture a cutting-edge wafer factory, you need to be able to perform cutting-edge lithography. Japan has a relatively complete monopoly on the chemical side, while the United States monopolizes the cutting-edge technology for producing EUV lithography equipment. Applied Materials and Asme are critical to the production of modern technology, requiring extremely complex production processes. Chinese fabs, such as HSMC (bankrupt) and Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation, the darling of China's domestic industry, rely on the acquisition of equipment from Asmar to produce silicon.

例如为了制造一个尖端晶圆厂，你需要能够进行尖端光刻。日本在化学端具有相对完全的垄断，而美国则垄断了生产EUV光刻设备的尖端技术。应用材料公司和阿斯麦公司对现代技术的生产至关重要，需要极其复杂的生产工艺。中国的晶圆厂，如HSMC(已破产)和中国国内产业的宠儿中芯国际(SMIC)，都依赖从阿斯麦收购设备来生产硅。

In short, without American equipment, no wafer factory can be competitive. In short, this is something that cannot be copied, nor is it something that China can Reverse engineering (although it has been trying for the past 10 years). If the current lithography equipment from ASML is suddenly destroyed or remotely disabled in Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation and other domestic manufacturers, China's domestic chip production will be completely stopped.

简而言之，没有美国设备，任何晶圆厂都不可能具有竞争力。简而言之，这是一种无法复制的东西，也不是中国可以逆向工程的东西(尽管过去10年一直在尝试)。如果目前来自ASML的光刻设备在中芯国际和其他国内制造商突然被摧毁或远程禁用，中国国内芯片生产将完全停止。