（中英双语）ETC预计2022年底，欧洲旅游业将恢复至2019年的近75%

根据欧洲旅游委员会（ETC）最新发布的《欧洲旅游趋势与前景》季度报告，预计到2022年底，欧洲旅游业将恢复至2019年的近75%。

According to the recent edition of the European Tourism Trends & Prospects quarterly report from the European Travel Commission (ETC), Europe is expected to recover close to 75% of 2019 travel volumes by the end of 2022.

然而，该报告预测，今年冬天并不好过。随着欧洲经济衰退和通胀加剧，消费者的支出和旅游需求将受到影响，经济复苏将推迟，但并不受阻挠。乌克兰旷日持久的战争和俄罗斯游客在欧洲各地的额外旅行限制，预计会阻碍东欧的复苏。

However, the report predicts the winter will not be without its threats as a looming recession and higher inflation across Europe will weigh on consumer spending and tourism demand, delaying but not derailing the recovery. The prolonged war in Ukraine and additional travel restrictions for Russian tourists across Europe are also projected also push back the recovery in Eastern Europe.

面对经济的不确定性和不断飙升的通货膨胀，ETC预测旅行者将倾向于短途旅行。2022年9月，法国消费者信心创下九年新低。英国和德国等其他主要来源市场也出现了类似的趋势。总的来说，预计假期价格将是家庭应对可支配收入减少的关键决定因素。这可能对欧洲有利，因为欧洲国内度假和国内旅行往往比长途旅行更便宜。目前，短途旅行约占欧洲总访问量的72%，预计在今年余下的时间里，短途旅行将越来越受欢迎。

In the face of economic uncertainty and surging inflation, ETC predicted that travelers will favor short-haul trips. In September 2022, consumer confidence in France hit a nine-year low. Similar trends have also been witnessed in other major source markets, such as the UK and Germany. Overall, the price of holidays is expected to be a key deciding factor for households as they grapple with having less disposable income. This may be to Europe’s benefit as intra-European holidays, as well as domestic travel, tend to be cheaper than longer-haul alternatives. Short-haul travel currently makes up around 72% of total visits in Europe and is set to grow in popularity for the remainder of the year.

研究显示，由于亚洲和太平洋地区的限制和挥之不去的负面情绪，前往欧洲的长途旅行仍显低迷。特别是中国市场，由于旅行限制的解除速度较慢，在复苏方面进展甚微。然而，据观察，跨大西洋旅游业受到了美国度假者的提振，他们受益于美元的强势——去年美元兑欧元升值了约20%。

The research revealed that long-haul travel into Europe is still significantly depressed, hampered by restrictions and lingering negative sentiment from Asia and the Pacific. The Chinese market, in particular, has shown minimal progress toward a recovery due to the slower removal of travel restrictions. However, transatlantic tourism was observed to have received a boost from American holidaymakers benefitting from the strength of the US dollar – which has appreciated around 20% against the euro over the last year.

美元走强已经证明是许多欧洲目的地的生命线，最新数据显示，今年迄今为止，五分之三的报告国至少恢复了2019年美国旅行量的70%。许多目的地超过了2019年的旅游需求：土耳其（+61%）反弹最为强劲，其次是葡萄牙（+17%）、立陶宛（+7%）、黑山（+6%）和波兰（+6%）。

A strengthened dollar has already proven a lifeline to many European destinations, with the latest data showing that three in five reporting countries have recovered at least 70% of 2019 US travel volumes so far this year. A number of destinations exceeded 2019 travel demand: Turkey (+61%) saw the strongest rebound, followed by Portugal (+17%), Lithuania (+7%), Montenegro (+6%) and Poland (+6%).

ETC总裁Luís Araújo表示：， “事实证明，欧洲旅游业对通胀的抵御能力非常强。虽然生活成本危机导致许多人改变了他们的旅行方式，但这并没有完全抑制他们探索欧洲的愿望。随着越来越多的旅行者选择更短、更近的旅行，短途旅行将成为未来几个月欧洲旅游业的生命线。随着我们继续应对全球不确定性带来的挑战，重建一个将可持续性放在首位的行业至关重要。”

Luís Araújo, president of ETC, said, “European tourism is proving exceptionally resilient to inflation. While the cost-of-living crisis is causing many to change their approach to travel, it is not dampening their desire to explore Europe completely. Short-haul travel will be a lifeline for the sector over the next months, as more travelers opt for shorter and closer trips. As we continue to navigate the challenges brought about by global uncertainty, it is crucial to rebuild a sector that keeps sustainability front of mind.”

来源：passengerterminaltoday.com

译文：国家旅业网