数观 - 美国芯片法案会如何影响全球芯片制造商？

美方近日出台《芯片和科学法案》，对美国半导体制造业提供527亿美元的巨额补贴，且其中部分条款限制有关企业在华正常经贸与投资活动，企图隔断中国芯片产业与全球联系。

这些限制条款将影响到一些全球领先的芯片制造商，例如英特尔、三星和台积电。它们都在中国大陆设有芯片工厂，如果接受法案的补助，将被限制在华建造或扩大先进制程晶圆厂。

半导体产业仰赖全球分工，全球60%的国家都参与其中。中美是全球最大的半导体市场，中美半导体企业也已深度融合。美国搞“脱钩”违背经济规律，只会损人害己。

As U.S. President Joe Biden signed a historic $52.7 billion chip act to boost domestic chip production on August 9, it included a caveat: Companies that receive subsidies shall not increase their production of advanced chips in China for 10 years, else they need to pay back the funding in full.

The curbs will hit leading chipmakers such as Intel and Samsung that have businesses in China. TSMC will also be affected, with chip plants on the Chinese mainland. They have to take sides between the world's two largest semiconductor markets – China and the U.S. – each accounting for about 25 percent of global consumption.

Semiconductors are the world's fourth most traded product, just after crude oil, refined oil and cars, according to Boston Consulting Group (BCG). More than 120 different countries, which are over 60 percent of the countries in the world, were involved as an exporter or importer of semiconductor products.

As semiconductor supply chain is highly global, with Chinese and American enterprises being deeply integrated, the restrictions will disrupt the global semiconductor supply chain and "hurt others without benefiting oneself," the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) said a day after the chip act was signed.

半导体供应链高度全球化

Semiconductor supply chain is highly global

半导体生产涉及50多种精密专用设备和数百种特殊原材料。其复杂性和专业性，以及规模生产的需求导致了其供应链高度全球化。

美国、韩国、日本、中国大陆、中国台湾地区和欧洲是主要参与者，它们凭借自身比较优势，在供应链中扮演着不同的角色。

美国在芯片设计和设备制造方面处于领先地位；而亚洲国家和地区在原材料、晶圆制造、芯片组装、封装和测试方面处于领先地位。

所有国家和地区相互依赖并形成一体化的全球供应链，依靠自由贸易将世界各地的原材料、设备、知识产权和产品运送到每个供应链环节的最优地点。

中国贸促会表示，美国芯片法案的生效和实施，将影响全球芯片产业链供应链的优化配置和安全稳定，严重扰乱各国企业在遵循基本市场规律下正常的经贸与投资活动。

Semiconductors are highly complex products essential to design and manufacturing, with production involving over 50 types of sophisticated specialized equipment and hundreds of unique materials and specialty chemicals.

The need for deep technical know-how and scale has led to a highly specialized global supply chain, where there are six major regions – the U.S., Chinese mainland, South Korea, Japan, China's Taiwan region and Europe – which take different roles based on their comparative advantages.

Broadly speaking, the U.S. leads in the most R&D-intensive (research and development) activities, like chip design and manufacturing equipment. Asian countries are at the forefront of raw materials and manufacturing – wafer fabrication as well as assembly, packaging and testing.

Countries are interdependent on the integrated global supply chain, relying on free trade to move materials, equipment, Intellectual Property and products across the world to the optimal locations for performing each activity.

The U.S. chip act "is set to affect the optimized layout and security of the global chip supply chain and disrupt normal trade and investment activities," the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade said a day after the chip act was signed.

半导体供应链本地化成本高昂

Semiconductor self-sufficiency is costly

半导体供应链的全球化有利于产业创新，而持续的创新将促进技术进步并降低成本，从而刺激经济增长并使消费者受益。

全球新冠疫情和地缘政治紧张局势给半导体供应链带来风险，然而供应链本地化并不是解除风险的办法，本地化成本十分高昂。

根据BCG的分析，供应链本地化至少需要1万亿美元的前期投资（才能满足2019年的全球芯片消费需求），这将导致芯片价格上涨35-65%，最终消费者将为电子产品价格上涨买单。

Geographic specialization across the supply chain allows deep focus required for innovation, and the continuous innovation will ultimately benefit consumers and promote economic growth through better technology at lower prices, according to BCG's analysis.

Risks fronted by the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical tensions may impair global access to semiconductor suppliers or customers. However, self-sufficiency is not the answer to addressing the risks, as the cost is staggering.

Self-sufficient supply chains would have required at least $1 trillion in upfront investment to meet global chip consumption in 2019, which would result in an increase of 35-65 percent in chip prices and ultimately higher costs of electronic devices for end users, BCG said.

BCG added that the solution to the risks is not to pursue self-sufficiency through large-scale national industrial policies with a staggering cost and questionable execution feasibility. "Government policies and incentives must also be in compliance with the norms of international trade."

全球芯片巨头面临“二选一”

The curbs hit leading chipmakers

英特尔（美国）、三星（韩国）、台积电（中国台湾地区）是三家能够生产10纳米及以下制程的芯片制造商，这些芯片对数据中心、人工智能服务器、个人电脑和智能手机至关重要。

中国是全球最大的芯片市场之一，美国芯片法案迫使芯片巨头面临“二选一”。美国对华硬“脱钩”，将损害美国芯片公司在中国乃至全球的市场份额，削弱其全球竞争力。

2021年，英特尔在中国的营收占到其全球营收的四分之一，而其美国的营收同比下滑14.9%。英特尔曾大力游说，希望美国不要限制芯片企业对中国大陆的投资。

韩国芯片出口市场的60%集中在中国，也无法承受将中国企业排除出供应链的后果。中国海关总署数据显示，半导体产品在中韩进口、出口总值中均排名第一。

台积电前发言人孙又文日前表示，“520亿美元真的不是很多钱，你只需看看台积电在一年内花费的资本支出。”台积电创始人张忠谋近日也表示，在美国增加芯片产量是一项昂贵的举措。

BCG分析指出，在美国建设晶圆厂并运营10年，还需要额外的400-450亿美元的民间投资。对于台积电、三星等企业来说，在美国开设一家新的芯片工厂所需成本约比亚洲高出25%到50%。

从市场表现来看，美国芯片法案颁布也并未提振本土芯片股表现。签署当日，美股芯片股出现暴跌：英伟达跌4%；英特尔跌2.4%，创2017年9月来最低。

Intel (U.S.), Samsung (South Korea) and TSMC (China's Taiwan region) are three companies in the world that can produce advanced chips at 10 nanometers or below, which are crucial for data centers, AI servers, PCs and smartphones.

China is the largest source of net revenue for Intel. The American chipmaker earned about $21.1 billion net revenue from China in 2021, accounting for a quarter of its global revenue. In contrast, its revenue in the U.S. was $14.1 billion last year, down 14.9 percent, according to Intel. It has been lobbying hard against the chip act's investment restrictions.

Samsung cannot afford to exclude Chinese companies from the supply chain, as 60 percent of South Korea's exported chips go to China. Semiconductors rank first in both exports and imports value between China and South Korea, according to China's General Administration of Customs.

TSMC ex-spokesperson Sun Youwen said there is not much to do with $52.7 billion subsidies, which is just a year of capital expenditure for a chip manufacturer. U.S. fabs ( a microchip manufacturing plant) require additional $40-45 billion of private sector investment to build and operate for 10 years, said BCG.

The total 10-year cost of ownership of a new fab in the U.S. is about 25-50 percent higher than in Asia. The average wages for skilled labor in Asia are up to 80 percent below the U.S.. It is an expensive move to increase chip production in the U.S., said TSMC founder Morris Chang.

"How to develop itself is the U.S. own business, but the approach needs to be in line with WTO rules," MOFA Spokesperson Wang Wenbin told a regular press briefing a day after the chip act was signed. He added that the U.S. chip act cannot undermine China's legitimate development interests.

U.S. chip stocks plummeted on the signing of the act. On August 9, Nvidia fell by 4 percent, while Intel dropped by 2.4 percent, the lowest since September 2017. The iShares Semiconductor ETF, which tracks performance of U.S.-listed chip equities, plunged about 20 percent over the past six months.