李开复 ：人工智能如何拯救人类（英汉双语）

I'm going to talk about how AI and mankind can coexist,

我将会谈谈人工智能和人类如何能够共存，

but first, we have to rethink about our human values.

但首先，我们需要重新思考人文价值。

So let me first make a confession about my errors in my values.

所以首先让我承认我价值观中的错误。

It was 11 o'clock, December 16, 1991.

那时是1991年12月16日的11时。

I was about to become a father for the first time.

我即将首次成为父亲。

My wife, Shen-Ling, lay in the hospital bed

我的妻子，申玲，躺在病床上

going through a very difficult 12-hour labor.

经历着一段艰辛并为时12小时的分娩。

I sat by her bedside

我坐在床边

but looked anxiously at my watch,

但却焦虑地望着我的手表，

and I knew something that she didn't.

而我知道一些她不知道的事。

I knew that if in one hour,

我知道如果在一小时内，

our child didn't come,

我们的孩子还未出生，

I was going to leave her there

我将要将她留在那里

and go back to work

并去上班

and make a presentation about AI

并向我的老板，苹果的首席执行官

to my boss, Apple's CEO.

呈现个有关人工智能的陈述。

Fortunately, my daughter was born at 11:30 --

幸运的是，我的女儿在11:30出生了--

(Laughter)

（笑声）

(Applause)

（掌声）

sparing me from doing the unthinkable,

为我免去了要做难以想象的事的需要，

and to this day, I am so sorry

而一直到今天，我为我优先工作伦理

for letting my work ethic take precedence over love for my family.

于对我家人的爱之上感到抱歉。

(Applause)

（掌声）

My AI talk, however, went off brilliantly.

然而，我人工智能的呈现， 进行得非常好。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Apple loved my work and decided to announce it

苹果喜欢我的作品

at TED1992,

并决定在TED1992上将其宣布，

26 years ago on this very stage.

26年前就在这个台上。

I thought I had made one of the biggest, most important discoveries in AI,

我以为我做了在人工智能领域内 其中一个最重大的发现，

and so did the "Wall Street Journal" on the following day.

第二天“华尔街日报”也是这么认为。

But as far as discoveries went,

但随着越来越多的发现，

it turned out,

结果是，

I didn't discover India, or America.

我并没有发现印度或是美洲。

Perhaps I discovered a little island off of Portugal.

或许我发现的是葡萄牙附近的一个小岛。

But the AI era of discovery continued,

但是人工智能的发现时代持续了下去，

and more scientists poured their souls into it.

而越来越多的科学家全心全意地投入其中。

About 10 years ago, the grand AI discovery

大约10年前，三名北美科学家

was made by three North American scientists,

做出了重大的人工智能发现，

and it's known as deep learning.

那就是深度学习。

Deep learning is a technology that can take a huge amount of data

深度学习是个能在单一域名中取得大量资料

within one single domain

并用超人的精确度

and learn to predict or decide at superhuman accuracy.

来学习以作出预测或决定的科技。

For example, if we show the deep learning network

例如，如果我们向深度学习网络显示

a massive number of food photos,

非常大量的食物照片，

it can recognize food

它可以辨认出

such as hot dog or no hot dog.

例如有热狗或没有热狗的食物。

(Applause)

(掌声)

Or if we show it many pictures and videos and sensor data

或如果我们向它显示许多

from driving on the highway,

在高速公路上行驶的影片和传感器数据，

it can actually drive a car as well as a human being

它其实可以与人类媲美

on the highway.

在高速公路上开车。

And what if we showed this deep learning network

若我们向这深度学习网络显示

all the speeches made by President Trump?

所有特朗普总统所发表过的演说呢？

Then this artificially intelligent President Trump,

这人工智能的特朗普总统，

actually the network --

其实是该网络--

(Laughter)

（笑声）

can --

可以--

(Applause)

（掌声）

You like double oxymorons, huh?

你喜欢双重矛盾修辞法，对吧？

(Laughter)

（笑声）

(Applause)

（掌声）

So this network, if given the request to make a speech about AI,

所以此网络，若被要求发表一场 关于人工智能的演说的话，

he, or it, might say --

他，或它，或许会说--

(Recording) Donald Trump: It's a great thing

能运用人工智能来建立

to build a better world with artificial intelligence.

一个更完美的世界是个很美好的事情。

Kai-Fu Lee: And maybe in another language?

或许用另一个语言来说？

DT: (Speaking Chinese)

人工智能正在改变世界

(Laughter)

（笑声）

KFL: You didn't know he knew Chinese, did you?

你们并不知道他会说中文吧？

So deep learning has become the core in the era of AI discovery,

所以深度学习成为了人工智能发现时代的核心，

and that's led by the US.

并由美国领导着。

But we're now in the era of implementation,

但我们现在身处于实践时代，

where what really matters is execution, product quality, speed and data.

被看重的是实行、产品质量、速度和数据。

And that's where China comes in.

这就是中国被牵涉其中的时候了。

Chinese entrepreneurs,

中国企业家，

who I fund as a venture capitalist,

我为这些斗胆的资本家提供资金，

are incredible workers,

他们是非凡的员工，

amazing work ethic.

有非常棒的工作伦理。

My example in the delivery room is nothing compared to how hard people work

in China.

我在产房的例子与中国人工作用功的程度 相比之下不算什么。

As an example, one startup tried to claim work-life balance:

例如，有个新公司声称工作与生活的平衡：

"Come work for us because we are 996."

“加入我们吧，因我们是996。”

And what does that mean?

那是什么意思呢？

It means the work hours of 9am to 9pm, six days a week.

那表示的是上午9时至晚上9时、 每周六天的工作时间。

That's contrasted with other startups that do 997.

这与其他实施997的新公司形成对比。

And the Chinese product quality has consistently gone up

而在过去的十年中，

in the past decade,

中国制的产品质量在持续地提升，

and that's because of a fiercely competitive environment.

这归功于具有极其竞争力的环境。

In Silicon Valley, entrepreneurs compete in a very gentlemanly fashion,

在硅谷，企业家用非常绅士的方式来竞争，

sort of like in old wars in which each side took turns

有点像是旧时的战争

to fire at each other.

双方轮流向对方发火。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

But in the Chinese environment,

但在中国的环境内，

it's truly a gladiatorial fight to the death.

它就像是角斗士般往死里斗。

In such a brutal environment, entrepreneurs learn to grow very rapidly,

在这个极其残酷的环境内， 企业家学习如何迅速成长，

they learn to make their products better at lightning speed,

他们学习如何光速地将产品变得更好，

and they learn to hone their business models

他们而学习将他们的企业模型

until they're impregnable.

修饰至坚不可摧。

As a result, great Chinese products like WeChat and Weibo

结果是，像是微信和微博的杰出中国产品

are arguably better

可说是比像是面子书和推特的相等美国产品更好。

than the equivalent American products from Facebook and Twitter.

而中国市场欣然接受这项变化和 加速变化以及范式转变。

And the Chinese market embraces this change

比如说，如果你们其中几个去到中国，

and accelerated change and paradigm shifts.

你将会看到它几乎是无现金及无信用卡，

As an example, if any of you go to China,

因为我们常常讨论的事物，移动支付，

you will see it's almost cashless and credit card-less,

在中国已成为了现实。

has become the reality in China.

18.8万亿美金是通过移动网络来交易，

In the last year,

而这归功于在其身后被建设的强劲科技。

In the last year,

而这归功于在其身后被建设的强劲科技。

18.8 trillion US dollars were transacted on mobile internet,

它比中国的国内生产总值还更高。

and that's because of very robust technologies

而此技术，你可以说， 它如何能比国内生产总值还更高？

built behind it.

这是因为它包括了所有的交易：

It's even bigger than the China GDP.

批发、频道、零售、网上、离线，

And this technology, you can say, how can it be bigger than the GDP?

如此般进入购物商场或是农贸市场。

Because it includes all transactions:

这项技术被7亿人用来互相支付，

wholesale, channels, retail, online, offline,

不仅仅局限于商家，

going into a shopping mall or going into a farmers market like this.

所以它是点对点的，

The technology is used by 700 million people

而它几乎是无手续费的。

to pay each other, not just merchants,

它是即时的，

so it's peer to peer,

并在每个地点被采用。

and it's almost transaction-fee-free.

而最终，中国市场十分巨大。

And it's instantaneous,

此市场巨大，

and it's used everywhere.

这给了企业家更多用户、更高的收入、更多投资，

And finally, the China market is enormous.

但最重要的，

This market is large,

它给了企业家一个收集大量数据的机会

which helps give entrepreneurs more users, more revenue,

这成为了人工智能引擎的燃料。

more investment, but most importantly,

结果，中国人工智能公司已往前飞跃，

it gives the entrepreneurs a chance to collect a huge amount of data

所以如今，在机械视觉、语言识别、

which becomes rocket fuel for the AI engine.

语言合成、机械翻译和无人机领域中

So as a result, the Chinese AI companies

最具价值的公司都是中国公司。

have leaped ahead

所以有着由美国带领的发现时代

so that today, the most valuable companies

以及由中国带领的实践时代，

in computer vision, speech recognition,

我们目前身处于的时代是

speech synthesis, machine translation and drones

两个超级大国的双联引擎正一同合作

are all Chinese companies.

来驱动我们人类从未见识过

So with the US leading the era of discovery

最迅速的科技革命。

and China leading the era of implementation,

这将会带来极大的财富、

we are now in an amazing age

空前的财富：

where the dual engine of the two superpowers

据普华永道称，16万亿美金，

are working together

在2030年，为附加至全球国内生产总值的 国内生产总值。

to drive the fastest revolution in technology

它也将带来巨大的挑战，

that we have ever seen as humans.

在潜在工作更替方面。

unprecedented wealth:

它创造了更多工作

16 trillion dollars, according to PwC,

因为工匠的工作被分解成 生产线中的各式工作，

in terms of added GDP to the worldwide GDP by 2030.

所以创造了更多工作。

It will also bring immense challenges

但是人工智能用机械人

in terms of potential job replacements.

将生产线中的独立工作给替代了。

Whereas in the Industrial Age

而这不只是在工厂内，

Whereas in the Industrial Age

而这不只是在工厂内，

it created more jobs

而货车司机、驾驶员

because craftsman jobs were being decomposed into jobs in the assembly line,

甚至于像是电话销售、客服、

so more jobs were created.

血液学家和放射学家的工作，

But AI completely replaces the inpidual jobs

在未来的15年内

in the assembly line with robots.

都将会慢慢地被人工智能所替代。

And it's not just in factories,

而只有具创造力的工作--

but truckers, drivers

（笑声）

and even jobs like telesales, customer service

我必须保护我自己，对吧？

and hematologists as well as radiologists

真的，具创造力的工作是被保护的那群，

over the next 15 years

因为人工智能可以优化但不能创造。

are going to be gradually replaced

但比失去工作更严重的是失去意义，

by artificial intelligence.

因为在工业时期的工作伦理

And only the creative jobs --

将我们洗脑并灌输工作是我们存在的原因，

(Laughter)

工作定义了我们生活的意义。

I have to make myself safe, right?

而我就是个典型并自愿接受 那种工作狂思想的受害者。

Really, the creative jobs are the ones that are protected,

我非常努力地工作。

because AI can optimize but not create.

那就是为什么我几乎将我的妻子独自留在产房内，

But what's more serious than the loss of jobs

那就是为什么我996地与企业家们工作。

is the loss of meaning,

而我对工作的痴迷在几年前

because the work ethic in the Industrial Age

当我被诊断患上了第四期淋巴瘤时

has brainwashed us into thinking that work is the reason we exist,

突然地结束了。

that work defined the meaning of our lives.

这个正子断层扫描显示超过20个恶性肿瘤

And I was a prime and willing victim to that type of workaholic thinking.

向火球那样地跳了出来，

I worked incredibly hard.

令我的夙愿逐渐地消失。

That's why I almost left my wife in the delivery room,

但更重要的是，

that's why I worked 996 alongside my entrepreneurs.

它帮助我重新审视我的生活。

And that obsession that I had with work

知道我可能只剩下几个月的生命

ended abruptly a few years ago

令我看清将自己所有的自尊

when I was diagnosed with fourth stage lymphoma.

建立在工作艰辛程度以及努力工作的成就上

The PET scan here shows over 20 malignant tumors

是有多么的愚蠢。

jumping out like fireballs,

我的优先事项乱套了。

But more importantly,

我父亲过世了，

Knowing that I may only have a few months to live

我母亲患上了痴呆症并从此认不出我了，

caused me to see how foolish it was

而我的孩子们已经长大了。

for me to base my entire self-worth

在我化疗的过程中，

on how hard I worked and the accomplishments from hard work.

我读了布朗妮·维尔的一本书

My priorities were completely out of order.

述说了人们临终前的各种临终心愿以及遗憾。

I neglected my family.

她发现面对死亡时，

I neglected my family.

她发现面对死亡时，

and I never had a chance to tell him I loved him.

他们只后悔自己没有花足够的时间与爱的人相处

and I never had a chance to tell him I loved him.

他们只后悔自己没有花足够的时间与爱的人相处

My mother had dementia and no longer recognized me,

并且没有传递自己的爱。

and my children had grown up.

我今天很幸运地处于缓解期中。

During my chemotherapy,

（掌声）

I read a book by Bronnie Ware

所以我可以回到TED

who talked about dying wishes and regrets of the people in the deathbed.

与你们分享我已经改变了我的方法。

She found that facing death,

我如今965地工作--

nobody regretted that they didn't work hard enough in this life.

偶尔996，但通常965。

nobody regretted that they didn't work hard enough in this life.

偶尔996，但通常965。

They only regretted that they didn't spend enough time with their loved ones

我搬迁至母亲附近，

and that they didn't spread their love.

我妻子通常与我一同旅行，

So I am fortunately today in remission.

当我的孩子们有假期时， 若他们不回家，我将到他们那儿去。

(Applause)

这新的生活方式帮助我认清

So I can be back at TED again

爱对我来说是多么的重要，

to share with you that I have changed my ways.

而面对死亡帮助我改变自己的生活，

I now only work 965 --

但它同时也帮助我用新的方式来看待

occasionally 996, but usually 965.

人工智能该如何影响人类

my wife usually travels with me,

确实，人工智能带走了很多规律性工作，

and when my kids have vacation, if they don't come home, I go to them.

但这些规律性工作不代表着我们。

So it's a new form of life

我们存在的原因是爱。

that helped me recognize

当我们抱着我们的新生儿时，

how important it is that love is for me,

一见钟情，

and facing death helped me change my life,

或当我们帮助有需要的人时，

but it also helped me see a new way

人类很独特地能够给予并接收爱，

and work and coexist with mankind,

不管任何科幻有可能描述的东西，

and work and coexist with mankind,

不管任何科幻有可能描述的东西，

that really, AI is taking away a lot of routine jobs,

我能很负责任地告诉你人工智能没有爱。

but routine jobs are not what we're about.

当阿法围棋打败了世界冠军柯洁时，

Why we exist is love.

当柯洁哭泣并爱着围棋时，

When we hold our newborn baby,

阿法围棋没有从胜利中感受到开心的滋味

love at first sight,

当然没有拥抱爱的人的渴望。

or when we help someone in need,

那我们该如何在人工智能时代中

humans are uniquely able to give and receive love,

将我们为人们与其区分开来？

and that's what differentiates us from AI.

我们说到了创造性的轴，

and that's what differentiates us from AI.

我们说到了创造性的轴，

Despite what science fiction may portray,

当然那是其中一个可能性，

I can responsibly tell you that AI has no love.

而如今我们介绍一个称为 同情、爱或同感的新轴。

When AlphaGo defeated the world champion Ke Jie,

那些都是人工智能不能做的事情。

while Ke Jie was crying and loving the game of go,

当人工智能带走规律性工作的同时，

AlphaGo felt no happiness from winning

我想我们可以、应该以及必须创造同情性工作。

and certainly no desire to hug a loved one.

你或许会问那种工作到底有多少？

So how do we differentiate ourselves

但我想问问你：

as humans in the age of AI?

你不认为我们将需要许多社会福利工作者

We talked about the axis of creativity,

来帮助我们完成这段过渡期吗？

and certainly that is one possibility,

你不认为我们需要许多富有同情心的看护

and now we introduce a new axis

来为更多人提供更多医疗看护吗？

that we can call compassion, love, or empathy.

你不认为我们将需要多10倍的老师 来帮助我们的孩子们

Those are things that AI cannot do.

来帮助他们找寻自己在这个新世界中

So as AI takes away the routine jobs,

生存和成长的方法吗？

I like to think we can, we should and we must create jobs of compassion.

有着这些新获得的财富，

You might ask how many of those there are,

我们不应该将爱的劳工变成工作的一种

but I would ask you:

以及将老人伴随或在家教育变成工作的一种吗？

to help us make this transition?

这个图表当然不是完美的，

Do you not think we need a lot of compassionate caregivers

但它指出了四种我们能与人工智能一同合作的方法。

to give more medical care to more people?

人工智能将带来并带走规律性工作，

Do you not think we're going to need 10 times more teachers

同时，我们将感到欣慰。

to help our children find their way

人工智能将成为创造者很好的工具

to survive and thrive in this brave new world?

所以科学家、艺术家、音乐家和作家

And with all the newfound wealth,

能够变得更有创造力。

should we not also make labors of love into careers

人工智能将以分析工具的方式与人们工作，

and let elderly accompaniment

所以人们可以将他们的温暖倾注于高同情性的工作。

or homeschooling become careers also?

我们可以用具独特能力

(Applause)

并同时是具同情心和创造力的工作

(Applause)

并同时是具同情心和创造力的工作

This graph is surely not perfect,

将自己区分开来，

but it points at four ways that we can work with AI.

运用并影响我们不可取代的头脑和内心。

AI will come and take away the routine jobs

所以你可以看到：

and in due time, we will be thankful.

人类与人工智能共存的蓝图。

AI will become great tools for the creatives

人工智能是凑巧的。

so that scientists, artists, musicians and writers

它的到来是将我们从规律性工作中解放出来，

can be even more creative.

它的到来也是提醒我们是什么使我们成为人们。

AI will work with humans as analytical tools

所以让我们选择欣然接受人工智能并彼此相爱。

that humans can wrap their warmth around

谢谢。

for the high-compassion jobs.

（掌声）