WIPO China: 信息和通信技术改变创新格局

WIPO China: ICT is Changing the Innovation Landscape

图：WIPO | Photo: WIPO

创新驱动型增长的未来：停滞还是复苏？在2022年全球创新指数发布会上，华为技术有限公司的樊志勇副总裁向世界知识产权组织邓鸿森总干事以及全球观众分享了他的观点。

What is the future of innovation-driven growth: stagnation or revival? At the Global Launch of Global Innovation Index 2022, Mr. FAN Zhiyong, Vice President of Huawei, shared his opinion with WIPO Director General Daren Tang, as well as the audience worldwide.

图：WIPO | Photo: WIPO

信息和通信技术（ICT）已然改变了世界。三十年前，万维网就诞生在日内瓦的欧洲核子研究中心。自此以后，技术发展从未停止。过去十年实现了两大重要突破：其一，移动处理器现在速度非常快，可以支持应用数据实时传输，因此用户可以在移动的状态下使用ICT技术。其二，人工智能处理器现在已经足够智能，可以处理一些现实生活中的工作，从而解放人类，让他们从事更多样化、而非重复性工作。

Information and communication technologies (ICT) have already changed the world. Thirty years ago, the World Wide Web was born at CERN in Geneva. Since then, technological developments have never stopped. Two major breakthroughs have been achieved in the last decade: one, mobile processors are now so fast that they can support real-time transmission of application data, so users can use ICT technologies while on the move. Second, artificial intelligence processors are now smart enough to handle some real-life tasks, thus freeing humans to perform more perse, rather than repetitive, tasks.

经过这些发展，ICT技术正在快速变革各大行业，从最开始的手机到现在的汽车、能源和交通行业。比如，华为无线工程师为矿井开发自动化监控系统。这些系统可以自由使用非授权无线频谱，最大化采矿安全性和自动化水平。此外，无人驾驶汽车、AI辅助调度器和各种传感器帮助港口、机场和仓库的工作人员实现物流效率的最大化。

As a result of these developments, ICT technology is rapidly transforming major industries, from the very first cell phones to the automotive, energy and transportation industries today. For example, Huawei wireless engineers are developing automated monitoring systems for mines. These systems can freely use unlicensed wireless spectrum to maximize mining safety and automation. In addition, driverless cars, AI-assisted dispatchers and various sensors help staff at ports, airports and warehouses to maximize logistics efficiency.

ICT技术正在改变世界，而且是以更绿色、更环保的方式改变世界。我们很骄傲地看到，截至去年年底，华为技术已助力客户实现绿色发电5,000亿度，节约用电约140亿度，减少碳排放2.3亿吨，相当于瑞士所有树木20年从大气中吸收的二氧化碳量。这是一个非常了不起的成就。

ICT is changing the world, and it is doing so in a greener and cleaner way. We at Huawei are proud to see that our technologies have helped our customers generate 500 billion kilo-watt-hours of green energy and save 14 billion kilo-watt-hours of electricity by the end of last year. That is equivalent to a carbon offset of 230 million tons, more or less the amount of carbon dioxide taken up from the atmosphere by all trees in Switzerland for 20 years. That was a tremendous achievement.

另外，我想谈谈关于“深层科学浪潮”。我们仍处于起步阶段，但我们已经看到人工智能在现实生活中的应用，比如科学研究领域。我们已经在利用人工智能对数百万种用作电解质化合物的性能进行对比和模拟。如果这些工作由人工完成，则要花费几代实验室工作人员的整个职业生涯才能完成。

I'd also like to say a few words about the Deep Science Wave. We are still at the beginning, but we have already been able to see the use of artificial intelligence in real life, like in scientific research. For example, we have been using artificial intelligence to compare and simulate the performance of millions of chemical compounds to be used as electrolyte. If the work was to be done by people, it would be a career-long work for generations of laboratory staff.

此外，人工智能还被应用于药物开发领域，帮助生物学家预测蛋白质折叠。据预测，人工智能可以将药物开发周期从七年缩短到三个月。有人将这种基于ICT技术从数据中计算出新发明的模式称为“科学研究的第三范式”。

We are also seeing that artificial intelligence has been used, for example, in drug development. They are helping biologists to predict protein folding. It is estimated that the time for drug development may be shortened from seven years to three months. Some people would call the use of ICT to compute the discoveries out of data the third paradigm of scientific research.

ICT技术不仅改变了ICT产业，也改变了创新格局，这一点很重要。以软件开发为例。在这个日益互联的世界里，软件可以在任何地方开发。我们生产的是硬件，但真正解决现实问题的还是软件。

ICT is changing not just our ICT industry but also the innovation landscape. It is very important. For example, software development has been changing. In a connected world, software can be developed everywhere. We build hardware, but it is software that actually solves real-life problems.

要成为一个优秀的软件工程师，必须要了解和贴近用户。也就是说，本地软件工程师开发适用于本地用户的软件。在我们这个互联的世界里，软件可以在任何地方开发。据IDC预计，到2024年，全球的软件应用和服务数量将达到五亿，超过过去四十年所开发的软件数量总和。

To be a good software engineer, they have to know their users, and they have to understand and be close to the users, which means local software engineers develop software for local users. In our world, in a connected world, right now software can be developed anywhere, and according to the estimates by IDC, by the year of 2024, about 500 million software applications and services would be developed and that is beyond the total number of software ever developed in the past four decades.

这对所有国家来说都是一个好机会。我不想低估ICT技术的重要性。我认为，首先，要加强工程师的跨国合作，所以我们倡导的第一项政策是，创造一个鼓励科学研究、交流和数据共享的自由环境。第二，我们倡导加强ICT领域的投资。据估计，在过去30年，每1美元的数字技术投资，可以撬动20美元的GDP增长。第三，我们主张加强知识产权保护。创新是一项冒险的工作，也是一项长期投资。一旦投资，必须等待多年才能获得回报，所以，没有良好的知识产权保护机制，创新就无法持续。

This is a good opportunity for all countries, so I don't want to understate the importance of ICT. I think, first of all, it has to be a collaboration of engineers across borders, so the first policy we advocate would be a free world for scientific research, exchanges and data sharing. And second, we advocate for stronger ICT investment. Estimates have already shown that one dollar of investment into digital technologies could be converted to 20 dollars in GDP growth in the past three decades. Last but not least, we advocate for stronger IP protection. Innovation is a risky endeavor. It is a long-term investment. You invest and must wait for the return for years, so without IP protection, innovation won't sustain.

如果一家公司开发的产品可以很容易就能被其他公司复制，那么所有人都会选择用更低的成本去复制现有技术，而不是去投资超越现有技术的更好的产品。如果公司不能收取专利许可费来弥补他们用于研发开放标准的数十亿美元投入，那么就没有公司愿意投入，因为这样就基本意味着，把你最好的技术贡献出来，让所有人免费使用。可以说，如果不能有效地保护知识产权，就是在剥夺用户使用更好的技术的权利。

If a product developed by one company can be easily copied by other companies, everybody would choose making cheap copycats of existing technologies, instead of investing in building better products to compete with the existing. As simple as that, if companies cannot collect royalties to compensate their billion-dollar investment for research and development of the open standard, then no companies would be doing that, because it will be basically contributing your best technologies to be used by others for free. I would say, if you do not protect intellectual property well, you are actually denying your people's access to better technologies.

图：WIPO | Photo: WIPO