为何中国经济复苏那么难？

刊于2022年6月14日环球时报英文版“王文变局专栏”，以下为中文翻译及英文原文。

亚布力，中国东北的小镇，被称为“中国达沃斯”。那里有中国最好的滑雪场，连续22年在滑雪场下召开的中国企业家论坛，也被视为观测中国经济信心的晴雨表。

因为疫情冲击，6月第二个周末召开的2022年亚布力年会，多少显得有些拘谨。两天会期，游客暂停进入，郁郁葱葱的森林内多少显得冷清，但官员却很积极。午餐会上，亚布力所在黑龙江省的省长胡昌升带领所有城市的市长，积极推介项目和当地优势。

有些数字让人印象深刻，比如，胡昌升省长说，中国农产品加工业与农业总产值已达到2.45 1，而黑龙江只有0.5 1，如能赶上中国平均水平，将是一个万亿级产业，希望企业家多投资。

这种商务友好型的场景，正是中国推动经济艰难复苏的典型诠释。

当下的中国经济的确遇到了多年未见的内外双重困难，逼迫各地都采取浑身解数、十八般武艺全上式的复苏政策。

有的城市取消限制多年的房产限购措施，有的城市采取购车免税方案，更多的城市采取扩大适度超前的基础设施投资，全国总投资额将超过30万亿元。中央政府层面的降息、减税力度同样已达数万亿元。

这充分说明中国经济政策工具箱里仍有许多工具。与西方不同的是，中国经济复苏政策需要考虑的因素更多。

一是综合性。在可预见的将来，对大面积感染与死亡可能性的疫情防范，必须与经济复苏并行不悖地在中国推进。中国不会允许像一些国家那样每天仍有不少死亡病例出现的现象发生，这就决定了中国投资、消费、贸易、物流必须考虑抗击疫情的成本，而最终形成经济增长与动态清零之间的综合效益。

二是持续性。中国经济学界曾讨论过美联储式复苏政策，如发消费券、扩大赤字、多印钞票等。但美国式复苏是中国的反面教材。2020年美国无限量化托起股市繁荣一度被人津津乐道，但现在美国经济惨遭通胀侵害，让两年前的政策更像是饮鸩止渴。中国通胀率长期保持在2%左右，证明了近年来中国经济政策效果的可持续性。

三是均衡性。如果中国放开北京、上海、深圳、广州等一线城市的房产限购政策，如果中国在绿色投资标准与环境保护治理上放宽尺度，如果中国在官商关系的反腐监管上采取放纵的态度，那么，中国经济或许会重新换得10%以上的增长。但地区差距与贫富差距会拉大，生态会重新遭到破坏，腐败之风会重起，这十年来的艰难改革换得的成绩将付之一炬。

当下中国经济复苏，要得不是简简单单的GDP增长，还需要考虑更多的社会效益、长远效益、综合效益。官方所说的“高质量发展”，的确是极不容易的目标，要求政府政策的高精度、各地官员的高水平、发展效果的高普惠，还有对国际、未来的高责任。

我用这篇专栏里介绍中国经济复苏的困难与顾忌，是希望能够回应那些西方媒体对中国经济的误解与抹黑，更是希望让更多人看到中国经济的希望。

正如在2022年亚布力论坛里所热议的，越是困难越要坚定信心。毕竟，相比于过去，中国的困难，不是倒退出现的困难，更不是死亡面前的困难，而是希望过得更好而产生的困难。

China offers certainty during uncertain times

By Wang Wen

Published: Mar 15, 2021 07:03 PM

Picture this. Someone tells you that if you invest 1 yuan ($0.15), you will harvest 100 trillion yuan after 100 years. This means that the yearly return is 38 percent, which is twice that of US investor and business tycoon Warren Buffet over the past 50 years. Given this scenario, would you invest? No one would have faith in this long-lasting and stable rate of return. But the Communist Party of China has done it.

Some people once compared the establishment of the Party 100 years ago to a corporate entrepreneurship, compared the founding of the People's Republic of China in 1949 to the company's listing in the market, compared the reform and opening-up in 1978 to its internationalization, and compared China's GDP in 2020 to its market value. So will investors pay attention to the company with a market value of 100 trillion yuan when it announces its plan for the next 15 years? Investors of foresight will be optimistic about the stock and hold it for a long time.

This is why I recommend readers to read "The Outline of the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-25) for National Economic and Social Development and the Long-Range Objectives through the Year 2035." This records in detail the goals, policies and paths of the first five years of China's journey toward the second centenary goal and in 15 years.

There are at least three very important keywords to keep in mind here.

The first is high quality. The outline did not put forward specific economic development goals for the next five years, but instead proposed to keep the economy within a reasonable range and put forward specific goals according to each year's situation. China has pragmatic plans for indicators that represent the country's high-quality development. These include increasing the percentage of permanent urban residents to a total population from 60.6 percent to 65 percent. They also entail increasing research and development expenditures by more than 7 percent annually, reducing energy consumption per unit of GDP by 13.5 percent, and raising the average life expectancy by one year.

This shows that China's development no longer pursues excessive speed, but quality. And China is taking concrete measures for this.

The second is risk proof. Risks in the domestic and international environment are clearly addressed in the outline. The world has entered a period of turbulence and change, but the problem of unbalanced and inadequate domestic development remains acute. The possibility of risks is clear: epidemic, social, financial, supply chain, environmental pollution and the risk of backsliding into poverty again.

This is why the outline calls for greater risk awareness, preparation for worst-case scenarios, and improved systems and mechanisms for preventing and defusing major risks. This reflects the prudence, moderation and strategic confidence of Chinese policymakers.

The third is pragmatic reform. The outline has made a fairly detailed plan in 17 aspects including innovation-driven development, modern industrial system, strong domestic market, accelerating the development of digitalization and rural revitalization. Finally, it also set up the planning security system. The outline didn't pronounce lofty and flowery ideals, but instead emphasizes details, steps and a realistic spirit.

At a time when many countries are uncertain about their policies for the next five or 15 days, China hopes to show the certainty of the next five or 15 years with the most feasible plans. This can provide the world with relatively stable expectations and a measurable development orientation.

If we look into all the national development plans since the first five-year plan was made in 1952, we can easily find that China's five-year plans are the most sustainable and achievable national policy plans in the world or even the entire human history. People should read the new outline.

Because the West lacks the in-depth research into China's five-year plans, it usually breeds two extreme sentiments toward China. The first is its fear of the so-called threat from China's development. The second is the tendency to curse China with the so-called China collapse theory. Facts have proved that some Western observers are wrong. The new starting point of predicting China can be achieved by reading the new outline.

US sociologist Immanuel Wallerstein wrote in his 1999 book The End of the World as We Know It, what we know in the 21st century should be more open than what we knew during the 20th century. If this logic works, the whole world, especially the West, should evaluate whether or not China, which has developed in high quality, poses opportunities or challenges over the next five to 15 years? Should the world embrace or reject China? Should the world cooperate with or give up cooperating with China? This will test the West's strategic wisdom toward China.