How does Thursday's jaw-dropping deal at the NBA trade deadline -- sending Brooklyn Nets star James Harden to the Philadelphia 76ers for Ben Simmons, Seth Curry and two future first-round picks -- change the balance of power in the Eastern Conference?

在周四的 NBA 交易截止日期到来前，布鲁克林篮网队将明星球员詹姆斯-哈登送到费城 76 人队以换取本-西蒙斯、塞斯-库里和两个未来的首轮选秀权。这笔令人瞠目结舌的交易将如何改变东部的格局？

A midseason deal between two conference rivals with championship aspirations is unprecedented in modern NBA history, and the implications are fascinating. Simmons will assuredly return to action after sitting out the entire 2021-22 season to date, while Harden is reunited with Sixers president of basketball operations Daryl Morey, who previously brought him to the Houston Rockets.

两个同时像总冠军冲击的对手在进行赛季中期交易在现代 NBA 历史上是前所未有的，其影响也自然十分有趣。西蒙斯在缺席了2021-22赛季前半段比赛之后肯定会重返赛场，而哈登则与 76 人队总裁重聚，后者此前曾将他交易来休斯顿火箭队。

How well will Simmons fit in Brooklyn alongside Kevin Durant and (at least in road games) Kyrie Irving after his on-court career in Philadelphia ended in disappointing fashion? How much of a risk are the 76ers taking by trading for Harden before he's eligible to sign one of the largest contracts the league has ever seen? And what did the undercard of the trade struck hours before the NBA trade deadline say about which team was more motivated to make a deal?

Let's sort through the myriad considerations of the trade centered around Harden and Simmons.

西蒙斯在费城的生涯以令人失望的方式结束后，在布鲁克林与凯文-杜兰特和凯里-欧文（至少在客场比赛中）会有怎样的适配效果？ 在哈登有资格签下联盟有史以来最大的合同之一前，76人交易哈登要承担多大的风险？在NBA交易截止日期前几个小时敲定的交易底牌说明了哪支球队更想达成交易？

让我们梳理一下这笔以哈登和西蒙斯为中心的交易背后的种种考量。

交易内容

布鲁克林篮网得到：本-西蒙斯、赛斯-库里、安德烈-德拉蒙德、2022 首轮选秀权（篮网有权将该首轮签改为 2023 年）、2027 首轮选秀权（前8顺位受保护）

费城76人得到：詹姆斯-哈登、保罗-米尔萨普

篮网：B+

It was 392 days ago that the Nets brought Harden to Brooklyn to complete their superteam. In that span, they've gone from championship favorites to second-round exit to not having Irving for the first two months of this season because of New York City's COVID-19 vaccine mandate to nine-game losing streak to trading Harden.

Life in the NBA comes at you fast.

392 天前，篮网队将哈登带到布鲁克林以完成他们的超级球队建构。在那段时间里，他们从夺冠热门到次轮出局，到本赛季前两个月欧文因为纽约市的 COVID-19 疫苗授权问题而无法出战，再到交易哈登前的九连败。

在NBA，一切都瞬息万变

In the short term, the Nets' odds of winning a title have decreased -- down to +425 from +400, according to Caesars Sportsbook. If Brooklyn could count on Harden being fully engaged for the postseason, a duo of him and Kevin Durant would have given the Nets a realistic path to the championship even if it started in the play-in tournament. Remember, we saw Durant and Harden playing on a severe hamstring injury nearly take out the eventual champion Milwaukee Bucks last spring with Irving playing no role because of injury in the last three games of that series.

根据 Caesars Sportsbook 的数据，篮网赢得总冠军的赔率在短期内从 +400 降至 +425。 如果布鲁克林可以指望哈登在季后赛中全力以赴，那么即使从附加赛开始，他和杜兰特的二人组也会给篮网一条通往总冠军的现实道路。请记住，我们看到杜兰特和有严重腿筋伤势的哈登在去年几乎淘汰了最终的冠军密尔沃基雄鹿，而欧文在该系列赛的最后三场比赛中因为受伤而没能出战。

Still, Brooklyn had to acknowledge that being the favorite to win it all this season was no longer realistic, given Irving's ineligibility for home games and Joe Harris' uncertain return from ankle surgery. The Eastern Conference also looks far deeper this season with five teams besides the Nets on track for at least 48 wins, compared with three teams at that level including Brooklyn in last year's 72-game season.

尽管如此，布鲁克林不得不承认，考虑到欧文没有资格参加主场比赛以及乔-哈里斯从脚踝手术中恢复的状态的不确定性，本赛季成为夺冠热门已经不再现实。东部本赛季看起来也更加水深火热，除了篮网之外，有五支球队至少能取得48 场胜利，而在去年的 72 场比赛中，仅有包括布鲁克林在内的三支球队处于这一水平。

That reality surely made it easier to make a trade that lands an All-Star who's seven years younger than Harden, plus a valuable outside shooter in Curry who helps cushion the loss of Harris.

这一现实无疑让篮网做出交易变得更容易，得到一个比哈登年轻 7 岁的全明星球员，再加上一个有价值的外线射手库里，能够帮助缓冲乔-哈里斯受伤的损失。

The most fascinating piece of this trade for the Nets is how Simmons will fit. Irving's availability complicates that process because Simmons may have to play different roles in home and road games. With Irving out of the lineup, Brooklyn probably wants the ball in Simmons' hands as the team's best playmaker. On the road, Irving and Durant become primary ballhandlers, and Simmons moves off the ball. It was easier when Harden was the point guard home or away.

对于篮网来说，这笔交易中最有趣的是西蒙斯融入球队体系的方式。欧文的出赛方式让这个过程变得复杂，因为西蒙斯可能不得不在主场和客场比赛中扮演不同的角色。随着欧文不在阵容中，布鲁克林可能希望西蒙斯作为球队最好的组织者然后将球交到西蒙斯手中。在客场，欧文和杜兰特成为主要的控球手，而西蒙斯则进行无球跑动。当哈登在主场或客场担任控球后卫时，情况要容易的多。

Ideally, I think Simmons would play more or less the role that Bruce Brown Jr. has for the Nets the last two seasons as a guard defender who floats into open spaces on offense and acts as a screener. Philadelphia tried that at times with Simmons, most notably during the 2020 bubble restart, until a knee injury brought that experiment to a halt after just three games.

理想情况下，我认为西蒙斯或多或少会扮演过去两个赛季在篮网队担任的后场防守者的布鲁斯-布朗，在进攻时寻找空位并作为掩护者。2020年园区复赛期间费城就在西蒙斯身上尝试过这种做法，但因膝盖伤势，仅仅三场比赛后，该实验就停止了。

Simmons is more dangerous than Brown when making plays off of short rolls and gives Brooklyn more size defensively -- something that will help it play undersized shooting guards Curry and Patty Mills, possibly even together. The question is what happens in home games.

在季后赛中，西蒙斯在篮下进攻时比布朗更具威胁，并且在防守端用自身更大的尺寸给布鲁克林带来优势——这将有助于他与身材矮小的得分后卫库里和帕蒂-米尔斯一起打球。问题是在主场比赛中会发生什么。

Do the Nets trust Curry and Mills to initiate the offense? Does Durant serve as point forward, adding even more to his plate? Or is Simmons in that role, one that has highlighted his reluctance to shoot from the perimeter and go to the free throw line in past postseasons?

篮网是否信任库里和米尔斯来发起进攻？杜兰特是否担任控球前锋，为他继续增加场上责任？或者是西蒙斯继续扮演他在过去的季后赛中所强调的他不愿意从外线投篮以及走上罚球线的那个角色？

The timing of this trade doesn't help Steve Nash and his coaching staff, who have already had a year unlike any before. Brooklyn has 26 games left in the regular season after Thursday. Durant, already ruled out of the All-Star Game, surely won't play until after the break. It's unclear when Simmons might first suit up. And of the 23 games the Nets play after the break, Irving is currently eligible for just 10 of them. That's not much time for Brooklyn to build chemistry.

这笔交易的时机并没有帮助史蒂夫-纳什和他的教练组减轻负担，他们已经度过了前所未有的一年。周四之后，篮网的常规赛还剩 26 场比赛。杜兰特已经确定缺席全明星，肯定要等到全明星结束后才能复出。目前还不清楚西蒙斯什么时候会登场。而在全明星休息后篮网将要打的23场比赛中，欧文目前只有资格参加其中的10场，留给布鲁克林建立化学反应的时间已经所剩无几。

Defensively, Simmons should be a massive upgrade for the Nets. After showing enough faculty with a switch-heavy scheme to be competent defensively during the 2021 playoffs, they've frequently been flambéed by quality competition this season. Milwaukee scored more than 124 points per 100 possessions in both head-to-head wins, per NBA Advanced Stats.

在防守端，西蒙斯应该是篮网的一个巨大升级。篮网在 2021 年季后赛中展示了防守端的大量换防的能力之后，在本赛季与高水平对手的对抗中他们的防守端经常被击溃。根据 NBA Advanced Stats的数据，密尔沃基在两场与布鲁克林正面交锋并取得胜利的比赛中每 100 回合得分超过124 分。

As a Defensive Player of the Year candidate, Simmons was overrated last season. His on-ball defense isn't as valuable as having a top-tier rim protector, but in a playoff setting his versatility will be a huge plus.

而作为年度最佳防守球员候选人，西蒙斯上赛季被高估了。他的有球防守不像其顶级的护框能力那么有价值，但在季后赛中，他在防守端的多才多艺将是一个巨大的优势。

Down the road, swapping Harden for Simmons gives the Nets more options. Trading Harden anywhere but Philly was going to be a challenge because of his contract. We already know from the past six months' of trade rumors that Simmons has value elsewhere if Brooklyn doesn't like the fit.

未来，用哈登换西蒙斯会给篮网更多的选择。由于他的大合同，在费城以外的任何地方交易哈登都将是一个挑战。从过去六个月的交易传闻中我们已经知道，如果布鲁克林不喜欢这套方案，西蒙斯在其他地方也有交易价值。

The Nets also recouped two of the three first-round picks they sent the Rockets for Harden, allowing them to sweeten deals in a way that wasn't previously possible. And it's possible that Harris becomes easier for Brooklyn to move with Curry as a replacement already on the roster.

篮网还得到了从休斯顿交易来哈登时付出的三个首轮签中的两个，这让他们能够以一种以前不可能的方式进行更愉快的交易。同时，篮网可能让已经在轮换名单中的小库里成为伤愈恢复中哈里斯的替代品从而更容易的操作哈里斯的合同。

Add it up and there's no question the Nets won this trade from a value perspective. Just how much they sacrificed in terms of short-term championship equity is tougher to tell based on Harden's mindset. Brooklyn also strengthened a competitor in the East for this year's playoffs, an important part of the calculation. Given all that, I understand why the Nets were willing to hold out and make the deal more favorable for them than a straight swap.

综上所述，从价值的角度来看，篮网毫无疑问赢得了这笔交易。根据哈登的心态，很难判断他们在短期争冠的方面牺牲了多少。虽然布鲁克林加强了今年季后赛东部的竞争对手，但这是计划中的重要组成部分。鉴于这一切，我理解为什么篮网愿意坚持并让这笔大交易对他们更有利，而不是进行哈登和西蒙斯单纯直接的交换。

76人：C-

In the end, Morey got his guy. At what price?

Despite the incentives for Brooklyn to make a trade now, the pull seemed stronger for the 76ers for a variety of reasons. Although they've played well enough without Simmons to stay in contention in the East -- Philadelphia is just 2.5 games out of first place and now three up on the Nets -- the Sixers were going to have a hard time competing in the playoffs while getting nothing from his roster spot.

最终，76人管理层得到了他们要的，但以什么成本呢？

尽管布鲁克林现在有进行交易的动机，但出于各种原因，76 人队的吸引力似乎更强。 尽管他们在没有西蒙斯的情况下打得足够好，能够在东部的争夺中留有一席之地——费城只落后第一名2.5个胜场，领先篮网3场——但西蒙斯的贡献为零让76 人队将很难在季后赛中竞争。

Given star center Joel Embiid is in the middle of his prime (he'll turn 28 next month) and as healthy as he's ever been, having played 42 of a possible 54 games thus far, Philly had urgency to get him the help necessary to compete for a championship. From an offensive standpoint, Harden is the best teammate Embiid has ever had, although it will be interesting to see how the two players fit together.

鉴于明星中锋乔尔-恩比德正处于巅峰期（下个月他将年满 28 岁），并且和以往一样健康，到目前为止，他已经打了 54 场比赛中的 42 场，费城迫切希望他得到必要的帮助以争夺冠军。从进攻端来看，哈登是恩比德有史以来最好的队友，尽管两名球员的兼容性还有待证明。

Harden has always paired best with floor spacers and lob threats at center. Embiid isn't quite either of those. He's rolled to the hoop on ball screens just 16 times per 100 possessions this season, according to Second Spectrum tracking, a rate far lower than Brooklyn's centers. The lowest of that group is LaMarcus Aldridge at 30 per 100 possessions.

哈登总是与站定拉开空间和能够挡拆顺下的中锋适配得最好。恩比德不属于其中任何一个类型的球员。 根据 Second Spectrum 的追踪，本赛季他每 100 回合只有 16 次在有球掩护顺下到篮下，这一比例远低于篮网的中锋。布鲁克林该组中最低的是拉马库斯-阿尔德里奇，每100回合30次。

There's no doubt Embiid can drag his defender to the perimeter to space for the isolations Harden favored by the end of his time in Houston, but that feels like a waste of the league's leading scorer at 29.4 PPG. Same with Harden dumping the ball into Embiid in the post, something he can do but is overqualified for as a primary option.

毫无疑问，恩比德可以将他的防守者拉到外线，让哈登进行在休斯顿时炉火纯青地单打，但这感觉就像对场均 29.4 分的联盟头号得分手的浪费。同样，这与让哈登将球喂给低位的恩比德一样，他当然能够完成这样的工作，但对这样水平的球员来说过于奢侈。

Assuming 76ers coach Doc Rivers staggers their minutes, part of the value of having both Embiid and Harden is that one of them should be on the floor at all times -- particularly useful when one or the other does miss time. Philadelphia's offensive rating has sunk by 7.7 points per 100 possessions with Embiid on the bench, taking the Sixers from outscoring opponents by 7.1 points per 100 possessions to a minus-2.3 net rating according to NBA Advanced Stats.

假设 76 人队的主教练里弗斯错开他们的上场时间，同时拥有恩比德和哈登的部分价值在于，他们中的一个人应该一直在场上——尤其是当球队的另一位明星球员不在时。 根据 NBA Advanced Stats的数据，在恩比德坐在替补席上的情况下，费城的进攻效率每 100 回合下降 7.7 分，使 76 人队从每百回合得分比对手多7.1分，变成净得分为负 2.3。

Still, to maximize their partnership, Harden and Embiid will have to develop two-man chemistry that utilizes both Harden's mastery of pick-and-roll angles and Embiid's ability to threaten defenses in a variety of manners. On the plus side, switching pick-and-rolls against them is unthinkable given Embiid's matchup advantages against smaller defenders in the post and Harden's ability to cook slower defenders 1-on-1.

尽管如此，为了最大限度地发挥他们的合作关系，哈登和恩比德必须建立并发展两人的化学反应，利用哈登对挡拆角度的掌握和恩比德以各种方式威胁防守的能力。 从好的方面来说，考虑到恩比德在低位对小个防守者的对位优势以及哈登在一对一时惩罚速度较慢的防守者的能力，他们两者进行的挡拆是不可想象的。

How Harden fits defensively is more of a concern. The best defenses featuring Harden, both with the Rockets and the Nets, have relied heavily on switching. He's effective using his strength to counter bigger opponents and struggles in space. Often, that's meant an initial defensive assignment against big men for Harden, but that now means asking Philadelphia forward Tobias Harris to defend on a perimeter. Switching in lineups with Embiid doesn't make much sense, so Harden will surely be asked to play conventional pick-and-roll defense, a challenge for him.

哈登如何适应防守更令人担忧。哈登打出的那些优秀的防守代表作，无论是在火箭还是篮网时期，都严重依赖于换防。 他有效地利用自己的力量对抗尺寸更大、没有空间属性的对手。 通常，这意味着哈登最初的防守任务是对抗大个子，但现在这意味着要求费城前锋托拜厄斯-哈里斯在外线防守。与恩比德换防没有多大意义，所以哈登肯定会被要求打传统的挡拆防守，这对他来说是一个挑战。

Add it up, and I still have Milwaukee and the Miami Heat as the two favorites to win the Eastern Conference this year. That's an issue because the Sixers need immediate success to justify the contract they'll presumably hand Harden this offseason. Assuming Harden picks up his $47.4 million player option for 2022-23, he'll be eligible to sign a four-year, $223 million extension once extend-and-trade restrictions expire in six months.

综上所述，我仍然认为密尔沃基雄鹿和迈阿密热火是今年东部的两大热门。76人队面临一大问题，他们需要立即取得成功来证明他们可能会在休赛期交给哈登的合同的合理性。 假设哈登在2022-23赛季执行了价值 4740万美元的球员选项，一旦续约且交易的限制在六个月后到期，他将有资格签署一份为期四年、价值 2.23亿美元的续约合同。

That extension would take Harden through age 37, a point at which he's unlikely to still be an All-NBA type of contributor. We have more than enough evidence in recent years of how big extensions for aging guards can go wrong. As compared to the worst examples, Harden's shooting ability protects his value to a certain degree, but he's already shown marked decline this season at age 32.

这份合同后哈登的年龄将来到37岁，此时他不太可能仍然是NBA最佳阵容级别的球员。近年来，我们有足够多的证据表明高龄后卫的大额续约合同可能会失败。与那些最坏的实例相比，哈登的投篮能力在一定程度上保护了他的价值，但他在32岁的这个赛季已经表现出明显的下滑。

In a vacuum, I'd probably rather have Simmons on his current contract than Harden on his next one, which could make everything else Philadelphia gave up painful. Curry was an important role player for the Sixers, who now find themselves relying on weaker shooters to fill out their wing rotation.

在假想环境中，我可能宁愿承受西蒙斯当前的合同而不是哈登的续约合同，后者可能会让费城为在这笔交易中放弃的一切而痛苦不堪。库里是76人的重要角色球员，他们现在正依靠较弱的射手来填补他们的侧翼轮转。

Philadelphia did manage to hold on to recent first-round picks Tyrese Maxey and Matisse Thybulle in the negotiations. Maxey seems like a possible trade candidate down the line given he's most valuable with the ball in his hands, though his development as a shooter (40% on 3s this season) makes him a plausible option to team with Harden in the backcourt.

费城在谈判中确实设法保住了最近的首轮选秀权泰雷斯-马克西和马蒂斯-赛布尔。马克西似乎是一个可能的交易候选人，因为他的价值在于其有球在手时（与哈登重合），但他作为一名射手的成长（本赛季三分命中率 40%）使他成为与哈登在后场搭档的合理选择。

The cost of keeping young talent was a pair of future first-round picks. Giving Brooklyn the option to defer this year's first-round pick to 2023 has a certain degree of downside for the 76ers if either Embiid or Harden misses an extended period due to injuries. Philadelphia got more favorable protection on the 2027 first-round pick, which can't be any higher than ninth and may not convey at all, though it's still possible the Sixers send a lottery pick at that point.

留住年轻天赋的代价是一对未来的首轮选秀权。如果恩比德或哈登因伤缺席一段时间，布鲁克林可以选择将今年的首轮选秀权推迟到 2023 年，这对76人队来说会有一定程度的不利影响。2027年的首轮的保护条件对费城来说更加有利，这一签位不会高于第九名，而且可能根本不会被转化（如该首轮签在2029年仍然被保护，则转化为两个次轮签和200万美元现金）。然而，在那个节点上76人送出乐透签仍然是可以接受的。

Ultimately, I'd rather do this deal than keep Simmons and hope to trade him this summer. I'm not sure I prefer it to what else might have been available for Philadelphia to upgrade this year's team without the long-term risk of Harden's next contract.

最终，我宁愿做这笔交易，也不愿留下西蒙斯并企图在今年夏天交易他。但我不确定我是不是会更喜欢费城升级今年阵容的其他可能性，以规避哈登下一份合同的长期风险。