Tesla Q2 Delivery Decline Less Than Bearish Expectation, June Sales in China First Rise in Nine Mont

TMTPOST -- Tesla Inc. shares rallied nearly 5% on Thursday after the U.S. electric vehicle (EV) giant posted fall in recent deliveries not as steep as some bearish investors expected.

Credit：Tesla

Tesla said it delivered around 384,112 vehicles for the second quarter of this year, dropping about 13.5% year-over-year (YoY). That was the second straight quarterly fall in delivery following a 13% YoY decrease three months earlier. The deliveries were less than the 389,407 EVs projected by Wall Street analysts tracked by Bloomberg consensus estimates, but still above low expectations that many investors recently had.

An independent researcher who publishes as Troy Teslike on Patreon predicted deliveries would plunge 19.8% from a year ago to 356,000 units for the quarter ended June. Prediction market Kalshi told CNBC on Tuesday that its traders forecast deliveries of around 364,000 units for the quarter, representing a 18% YoY drop.

Most investors were expecting deliveries of around 370,000 units for the second quarter, down 17% YoY, Gene Munster, managing partner at Deepwater Asset Management, said in his post on social media X. He commented “Tesla deliveries came in 4% above the whisper” and believed the nearly 14% delivery decline for the second quarter “should mark the bottom”, as he anticipated the quarter ended September would see a 10% decline and flat for the next quarter.

Muskter said the third and the fourth quarter will be noisy since the expiration of the tax credit in U.S. will pull demand forward and give results a measurable boost.

Earlier Wednesday, the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) released auto sales data over the past month, sending a signal that Tesla’s performance in China is improving.

Tesla’s wholesale sales of EVs made in China edged up 0.8% YoY to 71,599 units in June, climbing for the first time in nine months, according to the industry body. On sequential basis, Tesla China posted a double-digit growth of delivery. Deliveries of Model 3 and Model Y vehicles made in Gigafactory Shanghai, including both China sales and exports to Europe and other markets, gained 16.1% from May.

But Tesla’s quarterly sales of China-made EVs still failed to reverse the downward trend. Sales of EVs made by factory in Shanghai from April to June shed 6.8% YoY, a fall for three quarters in a row. Tesla aslo remained a laggard compared with Chinese competitors. CPCA estimated wholesale sales of passenger new energy vehicles (NEVs) , including electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles, rose 20% YoY to 1.26 million units, up 3% month-over-month.

Chinese EV maker Leapmotor and two ventures--Dongfegn Nissan and GAC Toyota broke their record of NEV wholesale sales in June, and Great Wall Motor, Nio, FAW Bestune, FAW Hongqi and Changan Mazda achieved their second-highest monthly sales on record, according to the CPCA.

Data released on Tuesday showed demand for Tesla cars in Europe continued to be dragged by the political backlash against Tesla CEO Elon Musk. Tesla sales dropped for the sixth consecutive month in France, Sweden and Denmark in June. Tesla has suffered six straight YoY losses in quarterly new registration volumes across Western Europe, according to Schmidt Automotive. The Ruoeapn auto industry market consultancy said the second quarter is "looking like it could be a consecutive seventh."